This is from the Ecomonist article : Peak toil.
http://www.economist.com/news/china/21570750-first-two-articles-about-impact-chinas-one-child-policy-we-look-shrinking
Now, Japanese economy is suffering from the number of working-age population. That will happen in Korean and in the other Asian countries. But, because of its largeness, the problem of China is on different level. What will happen to China’s economy and World economy in the interim?
ON JANUARY 18th the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that the number of working-age Chinese shrank last year by a total of 3.45m. In the slow-moving world of demography, that is a big turning point.
One may see the power of economy based on GDP. The shrinking of the working-age population will put downward pressure on GDP directly. Japanese is suffering from decreasing the number of working-age population, even though the growth rate of GDP per person has been the best in developed countries for recent 10 years. To keep the growth rate of GDP, the working-age population needs to work harder.
Once all its exceptions are taken into account, it permits about 1.47 children per woman. If the policy were relaxed dramatically, would China’s population explode again?
Many Chinese women would not have a second child even if they were allowed to.
Once decreasing the population has started, it is difficult to come back. It is because that the population of women decrease and the more developed economy prevents the family from having 2nd child. Even the one-child policy in China would release, 2nd child costs too much for the middle-class family.
The shrinking of the working-age population will put downward pressure on the saving rate and upward pressure on wages, as coastal factories have already found. According to Mr Laurent, the number of 15- to 24-year-olds will shrink particularly quickly, dropping by 38m, or 21%, over the next ten years.
No country has never experienced this rapid shrinking of working-age population, which will put downward pressure on GDP in Chin directly. So China need to focus on GDP per person. As the Proverb goes “quality over quantity”.
As they age, migrants may no longer be suitable for factory jobs that require dextrous fingers, or for some construction work, which requires a strong back. But as Yao Yang of Peking University points out, these older workers could take over service jobs in supermarkets and health spas or as security guards which are now done by youngsters. That would free young people to man China’s assembly lines.
The secret of China’s success lies not in the workers it adds, but in what new capital, technology and know-how adds to its workers.