ASX research 3: The Dusk (DSK) 1st ed. (10/12/2021)

The DSK went public in November 2020. I believe the Dusk is already widely known as candle business and popular among Australians. They reported FY21 results however this hasn’t affected much from more than 4 months of lockdown in NSW, and following lockdown in other states in Australia. However, I believe the company will be great after the lockdown lift because they have a strong financial position and brand. Also, international expansion will be interesting in the long term beginning with New Zealand. I believe it can expand to other Asian countries such as Japan, China and so on. Especially, Japan can be a good candidate they have a large population and they are having a bath every day at home. Other English speaking countries can be other good candidates for the expansion.

FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21
Sales (A$M)64.874.486.1100.8148.6
Online sales (A$M)1.53.14.58.811.2
Store Network8996106112122
Average transaction value (A$)39414651

The sales keeps growing last 5 years and online sales are also increasing constantly. They are also adding stores even during the pandemic. Also, they already committed to 7 stores in FY22. In addition to this, average transaction values increasing is a great sign. The customers are spending more money on their products. The online sales before FY21 have been not much, I would like to know how much they increased sales during lockdown time in Australia. They upgraded their web platform in August 2021, hope I can see progress on online sales during a hard time. I will do the estimation later on. It should have been great if NSW and VIC state in Australia were in not lockdown.

FY20FY21change
Revenue100.8148.647.4%
Gross profit65.6101.354.4%
Cost of doing business (CODB)50.859.918.0%
CODB/Sales50.4%40.3%-20%
EBITDA14.841.4179.2%
NPAT8.226.8225.5%
EPS (cents)16.435.1114.0%
dividend (cents)25.0
shares of outstanding57.7m62.3m7.97%
FY21 financial results from the company annual report.

They only went public less than a year so here is the result last two years, which I could get from their report. Even at the beginning of the pandemic late FY20 and the whole FY21, they have improved their business very fast. One thing I like is their improvement of the cost of doing business (CODB) of sales. So they are increasing revenue and improving the CODB at the same time. So if they can continue to do this, the company can be more profitable.

For the sustainable future growth of the company, there are 4 key drivers to grow the market share, 1. Dusk Rewards, 2. OMNI-Channel, 3. Store Network, and 4. Dusk Proprietary Products.

Dusk Rewards is a loyalty membership for the company. They pay A$10 for two years membership. Currently, they have 688k members 49% growth from the end of FY20. The members are loyal to the company, the member represents 60% of sales. So we need to keep looking at the number of members. The OMNI-Channel is an online sales channel connected wisely with shopping at the shop. Expansion of store network as showing below. It could be harder now to expand more. In last 4 years, the company has opened about 10 stores a year and close 1 to 3 stores a year.

NSWVICQLDWASAACTNTTASTotal
Physical store332630177314121
Total 122 stores including online store

The Dusk is not only selling candles. They are also trying to increase high-margin consumable products, all categories are increasing the sales.

FY20FY21change
Candles33.849.245%
Diffusers and Consumables30.847.654%
Homewares12.716.630%
Mood Reeds11.715.432%
Other11.819.969%
Total100.8 148.6 48%
All categories are growing the sales

Balance sheets look OK. The company has no debt. The current ratio is about 1.18. Maybe they want to improve here after experiencing the lockdown. On the other hand, I would like to take a look at cash flow statements to see their operating, investing, financial activities.

A$mFY19FY20FY21
Current Assets40.920.137.9
Current Liabilities35.331.432.0
Current ratio1.160.641.18
Quick Check of the balance sheet

Finally the estimation of FY22,

FY20FY21FY22 est.
Revenue100.8148.6110
Gross profit65.6101.375
Cost of doing business (CODB)50.859.938.5
CODB/Sales50.4%40.3%35%
EBITDA14.841.436.5
NPAT8.226.823.6
EPS (cents)16.435.137.8
dividend (cents)25.0
shares of outstanding57.7m62.3m 62.3m
FY21 financial results from the company annual report.

FY22 Revenue estimation = (FY21 total sales – online)*(1-0.35+0.05) + (online sales)*1.27

FY22 Revenue estimation Revenue = (148.6-11.2)*(0.7) + (11.2)*1.27 =96.18+14.22=110.4m

Assumptions: sales = revenue, they lose 35% of store closure and restriction but offset of revenge consumption after lockdown lift and keep using the same number for online sales growth so I add 5% increase. Online sales 27% increase based on FY20-21 number, I would say, this could be higher because of lockdown.

FY22 Gross profit = FY22 Revenue*(FY21Gross Profit/FY Revenue) = 75m

FY22 EBITDA = FY22 Gross Profit (1 – FY22 improved CODB/Sales=0.35) = 36.5m

FY22 NPAT = FY22 EBITDA*(FY21 NPAT/FY21 EBITDA) =23.6m

The CODB improves further by 5%. Cost of sales/sales ratio, NPAT/EBITDA, and share of outstandings are the same. So I could estimate FY22-EPS is the same level as FY21, this is the bottom line, hope they can do better than here if they could follow the growth trajectory like before. If only the COVID-19 gives them a step back, their share price is stable this FY22 but I think they can improve in the long term after FY23 if they can stay on track.

Do it anyways

Tuesday is gone now. Today is pretty cold. I need to be more careful than usual not to catch a cold. I have revised the presentation file based on the comments from colleagues, I should practice presentations, I will do it tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. Also, I spent some time revising my paper which I would like to finish by the end of October, so I can finish the revision soon to send out the English corrections and further comments. Then, I should finish the paper by submitting it.

Looking back on my blog posts, it seems that there are some readers on my research on the company listed ASX. That makes me happy, honestly, I am writing this on my own I didn’t expect to be read but now I am motivated. I will send out another piece of research tonight. This time will write the report on the Dusk which became public in November 2020. It is a good company, hope they can continue to grow. The share price of Dusk is a reasonable price now but it will continue to grow steadily, I believe. If they can really expand physical stores and online stores, they will do much better in the future. Also, the cost of doing business is improving, that is another good point. I will send out the post tonight.

Today, I heard something I want to try. It is good to write down 10 things you don’t want to do. So you can know yourself better. I thought it is a good idea to do it.

  1. I don’t want to perform experiment : Maybe this is since when I was a student. I didn’t do the experiment even I am an experimentalist. I like to study, reading books, doing research, but not doing experiment. Now, I understand why? Firstly, it is a hard work and I am afraid to lose. I am afraid of make mistakes while doing experiment. That feeling is still with me even now. Once you get some resutls I am happy, I realized I am learning and having fun. Before that I am afraid of doing all the work goes in vain. Now, I should change it. I should do more experiment to learn more, then I learned I can understand better when I am studying. So do take actions to do the experiments, then I should able to learn more.
  2. I am afraid of the feedback from collabolator : I guess, I should get over this feeling. I know. This is the reason I should keep writing, sharing with colleague, submiting to the journal. If you don’t understand you cant’ write, if you write, you might make mistakes, if you do make mistakes a lot, people think you are qualified to be a scientist or people think you are just not smart. It seems I am afraid of that. I have to admit it. On the other hand, I have to encourage myself to write so people can find my mistakes ealier. The Ealier I made mistakes the better. So let’s do organize what I should write and write it, and discuss it, so I can learn faster.
  3. I write slow until I start it : this is related to last answer, I am afraid to write paper because I feel it takes a long time to finish and I feel I am delayed all the time. If I can’t finish? it will delay further?? Why not start now so I can finish earlier even taking a long time to finish. If I don’t do it, there is no paper comes out from me. So only thing I can do is sitting in the chair and just write.
  4. I am not good at cooking : I can cook. I tried several times. And yes, I am happy when I cook delicius foods. But that is it. Somehow, I am not doing next meals or next foods, sometime I find easier to just buy one. Maybe part fo reasons is I am not interested in eating. I can cook and I like it but I don’t have desire to keep doing it.
  5. I avoid the analysis, coding, and calculation : This is similar problem with 1., I am afrad of failing it. Especially, physics problems are hard, I don’t really know what to do or where to start, so I should start something from simple. But I feel it is hard to reach a final goal, it could be complicated. I should remeber it is actually fun to reach the final solution. I should not keep avoiding the fail.
  6. I avoid practice presentation : This is the same, I am afraid of talking in public, if I practice earlier, I can finish earlier but even practice I avoid it because I am afraid of finding out too many mistakes or correction I need to fix.
  7. I avoid working hard, I am afraid of working too much burn me out. : This is happening from young age somehow I prefer to work every day a bit instaed of workign hard at a short period of time. When I need to practice runing, I should do both to improve my running, instaed I run everyday and do what I can. There is no improvement by doing this.
  8. I avoid what I should do : Yes, I geuss this answer becomes more in general. I think that is always happening to me. I know what I should do. I should do it what I should do first, then I can do what I want. I remenber by reading “Eat that frog” by Braian Tracy. I should make list A-D by making rank of the importance, I should do it by the rank A. Somehow, I ran away from always form the A. Because the A is usually the most imporatant but also the hardest.
  9. I can’t focus long time : Maybe because of COVID-19 and working from home, but I think focusing is really important. I can do it sometimes, but not always, why I can focus? Because I am curious or am interested in. I should create the environment which I can focus on what I need to focus.
  10. I am afraid of facing the problem I actually need to solve : Now by writing this, I realize that actually I am writing the same question and answer. I should do the most important things first but why do I avoid it? Because I feel the hardest and I am afraid to fail. So the conclusion, you should make the first priority to spend time on what you think the most important, maybe you are afraid because you feel that is the hardest thing to do. But, do it anyways.

今日はNSW州のロックダウン解除

今5時を過ぎたところで今日の仕事が終わったというところ。相変わらずやることがたくさんだが一つ一つ終わらしていくしかない。今日は金曜日の発表スライドをやっと作ったところで今週残りで練習していきたいと思っている。一方で練習は一日一回か二回だとすればそのほかは論文の執筆に使いたい。これからたくさんのプレゼンがあるがその都度その都度対応していくことにする。先に準備しても終わらないような気がするし、複数のプレゼンを一気に作っても作業効率が良くないことが分かった。とにかく時間を見つけて論文を書く。10月の中旬になってきてしまったがいち早く論文は出したい。

文章を書くことに慣れてきたのかわからないが毎日中国語、日本語、英語で順番で書いていくことで慣れてきたようで少しづつ日記みたいな記事以上のものをかけるようになってきた気がする。どうやら人気がある記事はオーストラリア証券取引所の株の分析記事のようでこれは素直に嬉しい。先週で15Viewsのうち12Viewsはこれに関して。株の分析はどんどんやっていこうと思う。自分が所有している個別株は現在6つであるがまずはこれを終わらして10個くらいは分析していきたい。理想は週に一本以上は書いていきたいし、最初はスピードを上げて週に2本書いていけるように努力していこうと思う。それでコツをつかんで勉強もしながら書いていかないといけないと思う。常に質はあげていけるように書いていきたい。現在記事の数は357の記事がパブリッシュされている。この一日一記事のペースを維持すると年内までに430記事くらいまではいく。ここに日本語の本のレビューや英語の株の分析、そして中国語の中国ニュースの分析などは少しづつやっていきたい。中国語が一番大変だろうけど。一日一記事ともう少し書いていけるように頑張っていきたい。しっかり本を読んで株を調べてニュースを見てまとめていこうと思う。物理の記事も書いていってもいいと思うがこれはYoutubeに出ている講義の紹介したりしたい。Youtubeにはたくさん良い講義があがってきているがこれについてみてみていろいろとコメントをする。わかったことを書くことによって自分のためにもなるし、もし興味を持った人がさらに見てくれるようになればいいと思う。

今日はシドニーではロックダウンが明けた。私のワクチン接種二回目は今週の土曜日になっているのでまだ気を付けなければならないが、買い物などは以前よりやりやすくなると思うし、いろんな店が開いているのは素直に嬉しい。日本でもワクチン接種はかなり進んでいてさらに感染者数もだいぶ下がっているのでこの状況が続けば病床数などへのプレッシャーも下がってきて人々も前向きになってくるだろう。オーストラリア全体ではまだまだだがそれでもビクトリア州がこれから感染者数を抑えられるような目途が立ってロックダウンの解除が見えてくるとオーストラリア全体でも人々の気持ちも上がってくるだろう。オーストラリアは不動産の価格が急上昇していてこれが今からどうなるのか注視していきたい。不動産の価格は僕が日本やアメリカからこちらに来てすぐに気が付いたことでそれ以来バブルだと思っていたことがさらにコロナで直感とは真逆に不動産価格が上昇というとんでもない事態。これがコロナが明けてきてどうなることやら。クラッシュはしないとは思うが、私自身は今のところ不動産を直接買うことはなくせいぜいオフィス関連のRIETを所有する程度。でも中国の不動産問題とも相まってオーストラリアの不動産価格には注目している。

今週もはじまったばかりだが目下私が気にしているのは二回目のワクチン接種。それが終わればいろいろとやれることから手を付けていきたい。なので副反応があまりつよくなければ来週の頭あたりから本格的に動き出せるだろうと思う。

用汉语学最近的中国新闻。

今天是星期日。我写了一篇博文。我写了我最近读的书的摘要。我想写更多。这本书是关于如何赚钱的。它是由日本的旧代表院撰写的。这是一本有趣的书。对不起,我用日语写的。我用日语,汉语,英语写我的博客。我通常写我的日记。我还在用日语写书评,用英语写我的分享评论。我觉得我想用汉语学最近的中国新闻。所以我可以学习中国和中国的文化。

本のレビュー1【”投資””副業”お金の基本がゼロからわかる稼ぎ方革命】杉村太蔵著

私は政治に興味がなかったためにこの杉村太蔵という方を政治家としてどういう成果を出した人かは知らなかったし、今も知らないと思う。ただしYoutubeに出ている映像やテレビで拝見した杉村氏を見て一つは愛されキャラだなということともう一つはめちゃめちゃ明るくて人を元気にさせる人だなと思った。対談などの動画も拝見したがおそらくお話していても楽しい方だろうと思う。彼が筑波大学を中退した後に、清掃会社で働いていて掃除を担当したビルのフロアが証券会社でそこで仕事ぶりが認められ、証券会社のアシスタントアナリストのアシスタントから仕事を始め、ある時政局が株価に与える影響のリサーチを命じられた時に自民党のホームページにあたり、その時ちょうど立候補者を自民党が探していて、論文を書いたら通って選挙に出たら通って議員を志してからわずか一カ月で国会議員になり、その後2週間で謝罪会見という。。。ジェットコースターのような人生。その後特に彼の動向をチェックしたことはなかったが元衆議院議員の肩書で今は投資家という。何をしているのかが気になってしまって本を手に取った。

正直に言うとお金に関しては実際に増やし方のテクニックなどは書いてなくてお金に対する考え方、副業や投資を薦めはするもののよく考えてくださいねという感じだった。お金に対してはあまり目新しいこと書いていなかったように前半は思っていたが後半になってこの本はちょっと違うかなと思い出した。やはり自分で投資をして事業を起こしている人は違うなと思った。

まず前半でこの人らしい視点だなと思ったのは国会議員の使い方のアドバイス。おそらく今までのお金の本でもこういったことに言及する本はなかったと思う。民主主義の日本だが資本主義のと一緒で使い倒している日本人って実はなかなかいない。よく国会議員は人の話を聞かないとか世間知らずとかいうが国会議員からしたら陳情なり選挙で関わる人々に周りに囲まれているわけで普段から政治に関わろうとしない人の意見が伝わらないのは当たり前だ。だから気おくれせずにいろいろと質問したりお願いしてもいいのだなとわかった。議員は我々民意の代表なのだから議員が言えば役所も動くということもなるほどと思った。

中盤くらいでは太蔵流投資方法や基本的な会社の健全性の見方などが書かれていてこれはこれで面白かった。きちんと勉強している人には太蔵氏が使っている基準はこれが彼流なんだと考えられるしそこに理由が書いてあるのも参考になる。初心者は盲目的に彼が示した7つの指標を理解してチェックしてみるだけでも参考になると思う。僕自身も投資家の一人であるが海外に住んでいるので日本株には直接投資していないながらもやはり日本人には一人でも多く投資をしてもらいたいしその中から一部でも本当の投資家が生まれてきてほしい。積み立てNISAからでもiDeCoでもいいから早く始めてほしいしその中でも興味を持った人はどんどん投資をしてほしい。今は20代や30代の人で投資をしている人が増えてきているようだし、積み立てNISAの口座開設数を見ていてもかなりのスピードで伸びている。なるべく多くの人が投資家としての視点を生きていくうえで身に着けてほしいと思う。

後半で政策への提言がされていてこれにはこれはなかなか彼にしか書けないことだと思う。高齢者ベーシックインカム、現預金の相続税100%、配当金非課税制度、スーパープレミアム上場企業、ESG投資の促し方、働き方改革、社会人の学びの無償化などの提案はとても参考になったし納得感のある提案だった

特に投資家として杉村氏がやられている北海道音威子府の実験の話、旭川の商店会の復興プロジェクトの話はとても面白かった。こういう人がどんどん増えるといいのになと思う。自分も投資家のはしくれとしてこういったプロジェクトに少しでも参加できればいいなとおもう。そう思う人がそしてお金を出せる人が日本でも一人でも多くいればそれだけ日本でも成功確率が上がると思う。

最後に本当に参考になったのは彼が言ったマクロ経済政策に対する5つのポイント問うことで、①金利、②税制、③財政、④規制、⑤通商の五つが時の政権が取れるマクロ経済政策で、逆に言えばこの5つの組み合わせしかないということを教えてくれたことだった。これは大変勉強になった。これらの視点を元に彼は小泉政権、安倍政権、菅政権をまとめているがこういった分析ができることによって自分自身もこれからの政権を評価する基準ができると思う。

金利は下げて、税制は減税で、財政は支出拡大、規制は緩和、通商政策は自由貿易志向が良さそうだと個人的にはまたは直感的には思ってしまうが、これは実際にはどうなんだろう。でもこれから勉強するにしてもかなり方針が立ちやすくなったと思う。元気な日本にするとか豊かに日本にするとかどうでもよくてこれらに対して政治家がどういったポジションを取っているかを政治家からハッキリと語って欲しいし、国民もきちんと確かめて投票していきたいし、投資もしていきたい。この本はとても勉強になった。

Write to understand better

Saturday night. I am doing great. From Monday, the lockdown in Sydney will be lifted. It looks people are already relaxed. I went to the farmers market today and go to near the mall to get some Asian food. I had a relaxing day as well. I am wondering what to do during Christmas time. For now, we are not allowed to travel beyond Greater Sydney even the lockdown is lifted. So maybe I just want to go staycation or something.

Currently, I am reading a Japanese book written by a former member of the house of representatives, Taizo Sugimura. He is now an investor now. I like him very much. Now, he wrote a book about how to make money. I am very impressed with the book. Honestly, I didn’t expect that book is good. But it was actually good. I believe his experience is unique even among the investors. He suggested using politicians for our sake as a citizen and proposed some of the policies to revitalize the Japanese economy. Also, he is working on a project in Asahikawa, Hokkaido. He is involved as an investor but his scheme is nothing I have heard of. I am curious. I will write a blog post about this book probably in Japanese.

And now I am doing some analysis on ASX companies for this blog. I just did two ASX companies and I can do one more tomorrow. I want to do maybe 10 of the first, then I will think about what to do next. I want to know each company better hopefully I will analyse 100 or 200 even more? Then I want to improve to understand of the business. My portfolio is doing great now but I am thinking of selling one of the companies if the time comes maybe within 3-9 months considering the tax. But I am trying to find out which company to buy next. By keeping analysing the company and writing the blog post, I will be learning to understand business and company.

So what am I focusing on now? I think physics is always in my mind. And the second will be investing for now. And the thirds are running, guitar, reading books and so on. Anyways, just keep learning and writing. Writing is good for me. Maybe I will do more writing, physics, music, books, whatever. What I can do now are share analysis and book reviews. Let’s do some of these, find out what I can do more later.

諦めて休んだらそこで試合終了。

現在金曜日の仕事が終わったところ。ちょっと今週は遅れている。これから10月11月にかけて8本くらいのプレゼンがあるが一つ目のプレゼンが来週に始まる。その準備をしていたがやっと資料の準備が終わってきたところ。来週からロックダウンが明けてきてどんどん忙しくなってくると思われるが今年のうちに2本の論文の投稿を絶対したい自分にとって厳しい戦いだ。いかに集中力をもって進めていけるかが重要だし、論文を書くにはやはり集中して時間が欲しい。どんどん集中して取れる時間が無くなってくるだろう。クリスマスタイムは休みを取るとしたら実質2か月強しか時間がない。プレゼン資料を作りながらできるかな。また実験もどんどん始まってくるからオフィスに出向く場面も出てくると思うし、2回目のワクチン接種してから2週間後にはやることも増えてくる。今年中にできる実験もあるしそれはやっておきたい。今年は休みがいっぱい余っているがどうするかそろそろ考えないと。来週は5日フルにあるが一日はワークショップで消えて自分自身もプレゼンをすることになっている。

真壁先生のノーベル賞受賞からいくつかニュースの記事が出てきてやはり印象に残っているのは論文を書かないと研究者じゃないって言葉。これは自分自身どんだけプレッシャーをかけていけばいいかわからない。自分自身ではかけているつもりでも本当に甘い。なぜ論文を書けないかっていうとやはり一つは大変だっていうこと。論文を書き始めて終わらせるには相当な時間がかかる。細かいところまで気を配って三カ月くらい集中して論文書いても共著者とか査読者にダメだしされて萎えるとかたくさんだし、細かいところたくさん修正していくと気が滅入ってくる。その過程で自分は磨かれるし知識も磨かれるがやはり一本一本を乗り越えていかないといけない。とくに論文を書かなかった期間が長い人っとかもう一生自分で書けないと思う。だから僕は絶対自分で自分の論文の執筆をし続けたいしクオリティを上げていけるように一つ一つだけど確実に投稿していきたい。僕の場合は英語は少しづつ慣れてきて確かにネイティヴに見てもらったほうが絶対良いがネイティブのひとには読めるというレベルにまでもってこれたのでとにかくこれからは毎日毎日書いていくしかない。40才を手前にしてここまで論文って書くのが大変なんだと思い知らされる。毎日毎日努力して書いていかないと。仕事の中でも楽なものに流れてしまっていたら絶対に意味がない。けど精神的には毎日逃げたい。

これから方針を変えたほうが良いのかもしれない。自分は毎日研究の始めに教科書を30分読むことにしている。そして研究はそのあとはすぐに論文の執筆から始めるべきなのかもしれない。もちろん実験を始める日以外は。実験と論文執筆、そして解析と計算は本当は毎日していきたい。なぜやらないかというと何をすべきかあいまいだからだと思う。手が止まってしまってだらだらとあまり重要ではない仕事に目が向けられてしまう。なのでやはり計画を立ててこの4つの業務はしていくべきなのかもしれない。とにかく論文を書くことが一番研究者にとって大事だ。毎日続けないとランニングやギターのようにいずれできなくなる。再開するのは大変だ。だから毎日続けないと。

今週は石炭の価格がものすごく動いている。世界全体でリスクが顕在化してきて中国の恒大不動産、米国のテーパリング、エネルギー価格の高騰など話題は目白押しだ。VIXの価格も底値は更新しなくなってきていて、いつ急上昇するかわからない。石炭の価格はありえないほど上昇したとさらにそこから急降下して安定していない。まだまだ230USD/tonあたりでいまだに超高価格というところだがいきなり下がるのは怖い。僕自身は120USD/tonまでは石炭の会社は十分すぎるほどお金を稼ぐことができる水準なので持ち続けると思う。オーストラリアでFY22ももう四分の一を超えてきたところ。昨日今日とだいぶ下がってちょっとつらいが長い目でみてまだまだ上がってくる。この株で利益確定した後にどの株に投資をするかをすこしづつ検討していきたいと思っている。インデックス株でもアメリカも日本もオーストラリアもどれもちょっと怖くなってきた。それだったらきちんと調べて安定した個別株の方が良いかもしれない。いずれにせよキチンと調べて準備をしておかないといけない。僕自身ここ一年ほどで学んだことはポートフォリオを構築していくのは時間がかかるということたとえ理想的は答えがあったとしてもそこにもっていくのは時間がかかる。ある分野が一気に伸びてきてそこで利益確定して伸びてないところに移すってなかなかできない。伸びているところにいつも投資したいし、伸びていないところはやはり投資しずらい。痛い目にあうまで人は学ばないのかもしれない。

ASX research 2: NST (1st ed 10/07/2021)

The Northern Star (NST) is an Australian gold producer. The NST owns three gold production sites Kalgoorlie, Yandal, and Pogo. They are targeting to reach 2Mozpa by 2027 with Kalgoorlie (1.1M), Yandal (600k), and Pogo (300k). And currently, they are mining 1.6MOz in group production.

\A$mFY17FY18FY19FY20 FY21
Revenue869964140119722761
EBITDA4264474897981138
Net income 1891941552581033
Share of outstanding(*)613615645695904
EPS = NPAT/Share of outstanding0.310.320.240.371.14
Dividend (dollar)0.120.0950.1350.270.19
The quick views of income statement last 5 years of the company.

In the last five years, the company has gradually increased its revenue and profits. Also, the share of outstanding increases as well because of the M&A of the gold mining company Saracen. 2021 might be an exceptional return we might need to watch. However, if it continues, shares now are about 8.91 so the P/E ratio is 7.82 or so, so I believe is the share is undervalued. But the price has not come back, actually, the share price keeps going down for over a year. So there might be a reason for it. I am thinking that NST bought Saracen in 2020 and 36% of their shares came from Saracen. I have felt Saracen shareholders didn’t like the deal because AISC of Saracen was much better. (*) Diluted shares outstanding, the WSJ website says so it is a slightly larger number than basic shares outstanding

\A$mFY17FY18FY19FY20 FY21
AISC (A$/oz)1,013102912961,4961483
Gold sold k oz/year5265708419001595
Average gold price realized (A$/oz)1,6731704176422082277
Operating mine cashflow (A$m)3503533797101077
Mineral Resource Moz10.215.920.831.856.5
Last five years of production of gold

The AISC is the company reported All-in Sustain Cost. The gold price is about 1700-1900USD/oz since July 2020 with roughly AUD/USD = 0.73 so I believe roughly 2328 (1700USD), 2465(1800USD), 2602(1900) AUD/oz. I think the current level of gold price and AUD/USD continues so the NST can make money comfortably at the FY21 year level. However, I hope they can do better on the cost down as they could do a few years ago so they can make more money. Hope I can see that progress a few years after they took over the Saracen. The gold sold is going 1.6 Moz level now jumped at FY21 and they are gaming at the production of 2 Moz by 2027. The mineral resources are increasing over the 5 years, and jumped at FY21 because of the merger with Saracen and also their explorations.

They are aiming at 1550-1650koz of Gold production (usually the same level as gold sold ) with 1,475-1,575AUD/tons of AISC. So if they can run it as they promised and averaged gold price realized, it should be 1.6M*(2277-1525) = 1203.2 million. So the gross profit could be the same as FY21. The EPS should be the same level as FY21 which is 1.14. Even if I want P/E = 10, the NST share price is 11.4, comfortably below the share price of 9.06@October 7th 2021. Also, they are trying to reach 2MOz of gold production by 2027, a 25% increase over 5 years. But this needs to carefully add analysis and depends on the gold price and production continues. However, since governments around the world are printing money so much, I believe the gold price should go up in long term. So you might want to either put gold or NST to protect your financial assets.

\A$mFY17FY18FY19FY20 FY21
Current Assets48655845411101840
Current Liability175200218638771
Current ratio2.782.792.081.732.39
Non-current liability13519531010292499
Total assets92412201640381011250
Total liability31039552916703270
Total equity614821111021407980
Last five years of debt level

Did I miss something else? The debt of the company. Operational-wise, the company is doing great for manageable liability. I am a bit concerned about the increase in the last two years. On the other hand, total assets also jumped. I am not worried about the operations at the moment.

Currently, the Northern Star is the second largest gold mining and exploration company in ASX after Newcrest Mining (ASX: NCM). The NCM is roughly double the size of NST now. Maybe next time update, I will compare these two companies. Also, I could take a look at their cashflows.

你必须继续写论文,否则你不是科学家

今天是星期四。我有很多事情要做。今天为下一次研讨会我准备我的演示文稿。进展不顺利。最近物理学Novel奖,日本出生的美国人获奖。他说你必须继续写论文,否则你不是科学家。我会把这记在心里。

今天我的投资组合也不好。从十月初开始就好了。所以这是一个退步。现在能源和资源的部门变得越来越重要。世界各地都缺电。

悉尼的封锁将于十月十一日结束。在我接种第二疫苗之前我还不开心。但终点已近。

Who am I working for?

Wednesday is gone now. I thought I can finish the preparation of one presentation today but I failed. By preparing for this, I realized maybe I am not a good person to do this presentation but anyways, I will try my best. I would like to finish this in few days.

The novel price in physics was awarded to scientists who did relate work on climate change. I didn’t look at their research yet so I can’t say much. But I didn’t feel good about Japanese news media reporting only focused on Dr Makabe. They didn’t focus much on the work from these three scientists who are awarded. But they keep reporting about only Dr Makabe. That is OK, not a big deal, this should be nothing to do with me anyways. I don’t think Prof. Makabe did not work for Japan, his research has been for humankind. Who do you think did actually fund the research?

By thinking about my career. I got a PhD in Japan, did a postdoc in the US, came to Australia to study for Taiwanese. Who am I working for? Who is taking a risk for me (this case, by paying my salary and research fund could be in vain)? Are questions I would ask sometimes. I feel I am working for Taiwanese. I am lucky enough to do what I want to do in my life because of them. I am working hard in my ways and the results I did or will deliver might not be beneficial or profitable directly to them. So I wanted Taiwanese to be rewarded if I can bring some results. So I always want to work for them where I can, such as growing scientific communities, helping them do experiments, publishing papers, and so on.

I have not been taught ethics as a scientist so I am thinking wrong. Like everyone thinks, I think my job is unique. Since the job is not required the profit in short term. And the benefit can be for everyone because once we create the papers (= new knowledge), that is for everyone. Why am I working on physics? The immediate answer is because I want to, or I am curious. Not everyone can do it for their job. But I can. So if I am not making money, food, building or whatever, what I am creating? Yes, the paper = new knowledge. I can’t be useful or not useful? actually, I can’t answer. Maybe in the future?

For the investment, this is kind of easy to answer, those who take risks can have returned (not promised). In a science case, someone, usually Government = taxpayers, takes risks but everyone could be rewarded when we write papers. Patents are similar but the company pays research so if they find something, they can have some exclusive right to use it for some time.

So again, I am working for Taiwanese taxpayers. I keep in my mind the reason why I am in such luxury positions is because of them. So I am working for them.