I got the 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine last Saturday. I got side effects during the weekend but I feel fine now. Now, the world looked different. The facility I am working for is still accepting fully vaccinate people only. If I can do the COVID-19 test and passed, now I can go there to perform my tasks. Still, it is different before the lockdown time however we can start doing something. Now I have many experiments I have to restart. As I said, there are so many conferences in October and November and I have many presentations. It is getting tough.
Other than that, so far so good. On the market, I would say very calm. Maybe this is just before the storm. I am not sure. The VIX (Volatility S&P 500 index) is very low now. Energy prices are high such as oil and coal. I know the world is going to go without fossil fuels but the demands are still there. I can lead an energy crisis. Some people started worrying about stagflation in some countries. I agree it can happen in many countries. How uncomfortable is stagflation? I don’t like prices to go up while the salary goes down. We need to prepare for it.
It is very calm this week. I want to work harder when nothing is happening. So I can advance my science.
Friday is just over. Today, I attended the workshop between two facilities in Japan and Australia. I enjoyed watching the presentations and discussions. I have presented my point of view to the workshop. They will continue to host these workshops. Maybe 5 or 6 workshops will be held within two months. I have another presentation in two weeks time. I just thought about recording my presentation for future purposes. So I can put it into the presentation file on youtube or something in the future. It is good to stock what I talk about then I can show it to someone who is interested in the future.
I will have my 2nd dose of the vaccine tomorrow. I have to get up early to get to the vaccine centre but I hope everything will be finished after this. Hopefully, I can work and have life fully from the next week. New cases of COVID-19 in NSW state keep decreasing while VIC state is still very high, not sure for short time, the number increases or not in short term.
I have 5 presentations in the next 6 weeks, it is going to be December after that. It is almost the end of the year. I can’t believe it. I think I should be careful what I should achieve this year. In November, we also start doing experiments, it is good to be back but I should finish them one by one. The goal is to finish as many experiments as possible before the end of the year. So we can have more beam time in early 2020.
Time flies so fast. I am working as a scientist, I just feel the improvement and the contribution I am making every day is so small. But I should never give up. The first priority of my physics life is writing papers. So I have to do it every day, making presentations, sharing the information is just secondary. I should not worry about it. Also, doing experiments is also first priority. These are sources of paper I can produce. If I don’t have any data, I don’t have anything to write. So keep writing and keep finding what I should do next. What I found is if I can write the paper, I can find more collaboration and more project I want to do it. I need to keep constantly produce good scientific papers so people can notice me and I am confident to talk about what I found. But if I don’t have them, I am not comfortable showing these to colleagues. Anyways, finish the paper, otherwise, these works just do not actually exist. So I have to push myself to write every day and I can believe I can enjoy my scientific life if I can write more papers.
The DSK went public in November 2020. I believe the Dusk is already widely known as candle business and popular among Australians. They reported FY21 results however this hasn’t affected much from more than 4 months of lockdown in NSW, and following lockdown in other states in Australia. However, I believe the company will be great after the lockdown lift because they have a strong financial position and brand. Also, international expansion will be interesting in the long term beginning with New Zealand. I believe it can expand to other Asian countries such as Japan, China and so on. Especially, Japan can be a good candidate they have a large population and they are having a bath every day at home. Other English speaking countries can be other good candidates for the expansion.
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
Sales (A$M)
64.8
74.4
86.1
100.8
148.6
Online sales (A$M)
1.5
3.1
4.5
8.8
11.2
Store Network
89
96
106
112
122
Average transaction value (A$)
—
39
41
46
51
The sales keeps growing last 5 years and online sales are also increasing constantly. They are also adding stores even during the pandemic. Also, they already committed to 7 stores in FY22. In addition to this, average transaction values increasing is a great sign. The customers are spending more money on their products. The online sales before FY21 have been not much, I would like to know how much they increased sales during lockdown time in Australia. They upgraded their web platform in August 2021, hope I can see progress on online sales during a hard time. I will do the estimation later on. It should have been great if NSW and VIC state in Australia were in not lockdown.
FY20
FY21
change
Revenue
100.8
148.6
47.4%
Gross profit
65.6
101.3
54.4%
Cost of doing business (CODB)
50.8
59.9
18.0%
CODB/Sales
50.4%
40.3%
-20%
EBITDA
14.8
41.4
179.2%
NPAT
8.2
26.8
225.5%
EPS (cents)
16.4
35.1
114.0%
dividend (cents)
—
25.0
—
shares of outstanding
57.7m
62.3m
7.97%
FY21 financial results from the company annual report.
They only went public less than a year so here is the result last two years, which I could get from their report. Even at the beginning of the pandemic late FY20 and the whole FY21, they have improved their business very fast. One thing I like is their improvement of the cost of doing business (CODB) of sales. So they are increasing revenue and improving the CODB at the same time. So if they can continue to do this, the company can be more profitable.
For the sustainable future growth of the company, there are 4 key drivers to grow the market share, 1. Dusk Rewards, 2. OMNI-Channel, 3. Store Network, and 4. Dusk Proprietary Products.
Dusk Rewards is a loyalty membership for the company. They pay A$10 for two years membership. Currently, they have 688k members 49% growth from the end of FY20. The members are loyal to the company, the member represents 60% of sales. So we need to keep looking at the number of members. The OMNI-Channel is an online sales channel connected wisely with shopping at the shop. Expansion of store network as showing below. It could be harder now to expand more. In last 4 years, the company has opened about 10 stores a year and close 1 to 3 stores a year.
NSW
VIC
QLD
WA
SA
ACT
NT
TAS
Total
Physical store
33
26
30
17
7
3
1
4
121
Total 122 stores including online store
The Dusk is not only selling candles. They are also trying to increase high-margin consumable products, all categories are increasing the sales.
FY20
FY21
change
Candles
33.8
49.2
45%
Diffusers and Consumables
30.8
47.6
54%
Homewares
12.7
16.6
30%
Mood Reeds
11.7
15.4
32%
Other
11.8
19.9
69%
Total
100.8
148.6
48%
All categories are growing the sales
Balance sheets look OK. The company has no debt. The current ratio is about 1.18. Maybe they want to improve here after experiencing the lockdown. On the other hand, I would like to take a look at cash flow statements to see their operating, investing, financial activities.
A$m
FY19
FY20
FY21
Current Assets
40.9
20.1
37.9
Current Liabilities
35.3
31.4
32.0
Current ratio
1.16
0.64
1.18
Quick Check of the balance sheet
Finally the estimation of FY22,
FY20
FY21
FY22 est.
Revenue
100.8
148.6
110
Gross profit
65.6
101.3
75
Cost of doing business (CODB)
50.8
59.9
38.5
CODB/Sales
50.4%
40.3%
35%
EBITDA
14.8
41.4
36.5
NPAT
8.2
26.8
23.6
EPS (cents)
16.4
35.1
37.8
dividend (cents)
—
25.0
—
shares of outstanding
57.7m
62.3m
62.3m
FY21 financial results from the company annual report.
Assumptions: sales = revenue, they lose 35% of store closure and restriction but offset of revenge consumption after lockdown lift and keep using the same number for online sales growth so I add 5% increase. Online sales 27% increase based on FY20-21 number, I would say, this could be higher because of lockdown.
The CODB improves further by 5%. Cost of sales/sales ratio, NPAT/EBITDA, and share of outstandings are the same. So I could estimate FY22-EPS is the same level as FY21, this is the bottom line, hope they can do better than here if they could follow the growth trajectory like before. If only the COVID-19 gives them a step back, their share price is stable this FY22 but I think they can improve in the long term after FY23 if they can stay on track.
Tuesday is gone now. Today is pretty cold. I need to be more careful than usual not to catch a cold. I have revised the presentation file based on the comments from colleagues, I should practice presentations, I will do it tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. Also, I spent some time revising my paper which I would like to finish by the end of October, so I can finish the revision soon to send out the English corrections and further comments. Then, I should finish the paper by submitting it.
Looking back on my blog posts, it seems that there are some readers on my research on the company listed ASX. That makes me happy, honestly, I am writing this on my own I didn’t expect to be read but now I am motivated. I will send out another piece of research tonight. This time will write the report on the Dusk which became public in November 2020. It is a good company, hope they can continue to grow. The share price of Dusk is a reasonable price now but it will continue to grow steadily, I believe. If they can really expand physical stores and online stores, they will do much better in the future. Also, the cost of doing business is improving, that is another good point. I will send out the post tonight.
Today, I heard something I want to try. It is good to write down 10 things you don’t want to do. So you can know yourself better. I thought it is a good idea to do it.
I don’t want to perform experiment : Maybe this is since when I was a student. I didn’t do the experiment even I am an experimentalist. I like to study, reading books, doing research, but not doing experiment. Now, I understand why? Firstly, it is a hard work and I am afraid to lose. I am afraid of make mistakes while doing experiment. That feeling is still with me even now. Once you get some resutls I am happy, I realized I am learning and having fun. Before that I am afraid of doing all the work goes in vain. Now, I should change it. I should do more experiment to learn more, then I learned I can understand better when I am studying. So do take actions to do the experiments, then I should able to learn more.
I am afraid of the feedback from collabolator : I guess, I should get over this feeling. I know. This is the reason I should keep writing, sharing with colleague, submiting to the journal. If you don’t understand you cant’ write, if you write, you might make mistakes, if you do make mistakes a lot, people think you are qualified to be a scientist or people think you are just not smart. It seems I am afraid of that. I have to admit it. On the other hand, I have to encourage myself to write so people can find my mistakes ealier. The Ealier I made mistakes the better. So let’s do organize what I should write and write it, and discuss it, so I can learn faster.
I write slow until I start it : this is related to last answer, I am afraid to write paper because I feel it takes a long time to finish and I feel I am delayed all the time. If I can’t finish? it will delay further?? Why not start now so I can finish earlier even taking a long time to finish. If I don’t do it, there is no paper comes out from me. So only thing I can do is sitting in the chair and just write.
I am not good at cooking : I can cook. I tried several times. And yes, I am happy when I cook delicius foods. But that is it. Somehow, I am not doing next meals or next foods, sometime I find easier to just buy one. Maybe part fo reasons is I am not interested in eating. I can cook and I like it but I don’t have desire to keep doing it.
I avoid the analysis, coding, and calculation : This is similar problem with 1., I am afrad of failing it. Especially, physics problems are hard, I don’t really know what to do or where to start, so I should start something from simple. But I feel it is hard to reach a final goal, it could be complicated. I should remeber it is actually fun to reach the final solution. I should not keep avoiding the fail.
I avoid practice presentation : This is the same, I am afraid of talking in public, if I practice earlier, I can finish earlier but even practice I avoid it because I am afraid of finding out too many mistakes or correction I need to fix.
I avoid working hard, I am afraid of working too much burn me out. : This is happening from young age somehow I prefer to work every day a bit instaed of workign hard at a short period of time. When I need to practice runing, I should do both to improve my running, instaed I run everyday and do what I can. There is no improvement by doing this.
I avoid what I should do : Yes, I geuss this answer becomes more in general. I think that is always happening to me. I know what I should do. I should do it what I should do first, then I can do what I want. I remenber by reading “Eat that frog” by Braian Tracy. I should make list A-D by making rank of the importance, I should do it by the rank A. Somehow, I ran away from always form the A. Because the A is usually the most imporatant but also the hardest.
I can’t focus long time : Maybe because of COVID-19 and working from home, but I think focusing is really important. I can do it sometimes, but not always, why I can focus? Because I am curious or am interested in. I should create the environment which I can focus on what I need to focus.
I am afraid of facing the problem I actually need to solve : Now by writing this, I realize that actually I am writing the same question and answer. I should do the most important things first but why do I avoid it? Because I feel the hardest and I am afraid to fail. So the conclusion, you should make the first priority to spend time on what you think the most important, maybe you are afraid because you feel that is the hardest thing to do. But, do it anyways.