The mid-Nov. 2020

What I am working these days. I had my health problem for several years and now my strength is back. I keep updating here what I am thinking of the field I am working on.

Physics: We got a good paper in Nov.6 from Advanced Science. We got a cover letter from the journal, that makes me very happy. Also, this paper form Taiwan where I work for. Now, Taiwan is creating top-level science with neutron scattering. I am an instrument scientist of cold triple-axis spectrometer, I am now a better understanding of the instrument and related science after I work here almost 6 years now. I would like to improve my understanding of physics. I am in the position of one of the most experienced scientists in using triple-axis spectrometer. I should do more work and I should know the neutron science better. I also got a referee request from one of the prestigious physical journal. I am honour to review the paper and give me a chance to learn more. I have made a poster presentation today in Australia. It is good to keep going to serving science community.

Investing: I am learning more about investing by doing invest. My understanding of investing is gradually better. I would think learning about money is one of the best education you can do for yourself. But the learning curve is rather slower than I expected. At the time of writing, Biden got elected as the U.S. President, things could swing in the next several months or even years. On the other hand, I am hearing record high in the stock market in the U.S., Japan, and Korea. It seems people are excited about investing in stocks. For me, it does not matter, I just research whatever the way I learned, I make my own decision, invest, take responsibility.

Reading: I just finished reading a book “Go by KAZUKI KANESHIRO translated by TAKAMI MIEDA”. The book is about the story of Zainichi in Japan. As a Japanese, I knew they exist. But I have not involved enough to know their life. I have made a lot of friends with a Korean name. To be honest, I even have never asked they are Zainichi or foreign students. I learned that they can be North-Korean or South-Korean citizenship. Maybe I just don’t know them good enough to know their hardship living in Japan. The book is good, this is a love story but basically, the book describes how Japanese society treats them and how they survive in Japan. The book gives me a new way to look at my country. What does nationality mean? What does ethnicity mean? What does race mean? I was born and raised in Japan but I have lived in the U.S. and am living in Australia now. This is the question I am thinking always.

Anything else? I am not doing much on running and playing the guitar. What else I am thinking? I am feeling great about learning English. I am reading and listening to books in English which is my second language. I am enjoying them so I just enjoying learning English by just reading books. This is great. Now, I am focusing more on vocabularies. I want to learn more, then I should be able to read more and better. Hopefully, I can speak and write Englis better. Maybe I will start writing the book review.

That’s it for today. Thank you for reading. I will keep on writing.

Thoughts on Australian Economy

 

I am not economist so I don’t know but I want to make some sense on Australian Economy. Since I was born in Japan, had lived in the U.S. and am living in Australia. I can see the clear differences between Japan, the U.S., and Australia. So today, I would challenge myself to understand, at least make sense, on Australian economy. I wanted to write this when I understand Australia fully but it never happens anyway. And I wanted to make clear on what I felt when I just came this country, I honestly thought like “what is wrong with the economy of this country?” After living few years, my feeling was bit relieved, I might say paralyzed,  but it is good time to reflect on it to have conclusion.  

 The biggest question here is why I have to pay so much for properties, foods, and daily essentials even though I am paid better than in Japan and the U.S.? Economic indicators look solid at a first glance for people outside of Australia however you quickly realize you don’t feel richness as indicators tell you if you live here. You will get higher salary but you have to pay a lot for almost everything. If the world were truly global, this economy would have to be adjusted. But it seems not. Anyways. Let’s see the facts backed by data. Again, I am not economist so please excuse me if I am using wrong parameters to see.

 Let’s see 9 factors in Australian economy to get snapshot. The data was published Federal Reserve Bank Australia published March 8, 2017. GDP growth 2.4 annually, inflation rate 1.5 %, cash rate (interest rate) 1.5% , Australia dollar A$=US$0.7671, Population 24.1 million, with 1.4 % annual growth, unemployment rate 5.8 % (which is suppose to be 5 % is full employment, so 0.8 % people are out of work). Average weekly Earning $1162, Household saving ratio 6.3 %, Residential dwellings $631000, these are 8 of them. I will talk about industry share of output key factors later.

Did you get snapshot? Yes? I realized that I had believed this country is growing but it is not. Australia is supposed to, and people still believe, have fundamentally strong economy since GDP of Australia grows faster than that of developed countries, such as Japan, the U.S, and Europeans. I was blindly thinking so too. But see, its GDP grows 2.4 annually, while inflation rate is 1.5 %, and its population grow 1.4 %. (Figure (A)) They are not getting richer? No. Now I am feeling Japan is not bad after all. GDP grows slowly while its population is shrinking and they are in deflation for long time. And Japan has no natural resources as Australia does. So next question is when this slowing started? As long as I find in few years data, it has been for at least 3 years.  It is convincing that the wage is not growing and A$ is getting cheaper last 5 years. 

“Many people are struggling to make ends meet. We have the lowest wage growth in a generation.” Treasurer Scott Masison said in March, 2017. I see.  Average weekly Earning $1162 but grew only 1.6 % in 2016, and saving ratio 6.3 % and drop rapidly since last July. So Australia is not growing as I thought. Growing slow is not problem. But, Australia now is the problem. The problem is Australia has gone 25 years makes people here paralyzed like they are doing O.K. even when they are not. There are two big problems, they are mining boom and housing bubble. 

Australia is called “Lucky country”, people outside of this countries have called them so enviously.  Australia continent is huge and weather is very nice. People can enjoy gorgeous beaches and mountains and there are not so many people here. Australia is fundamentally strong country. They have mining, so they can sell iron ore and coal. They have become rich while they took it for granted too much. Mining boom has ended as China is running slow. As the author of Boom to bust put it “Australia was then in the middle of the biggest mining boom in its history, stemming from increased demand in China. In the decade to 2012, the value of its mined exports tripled; mining investment rose from 2% of GDP to 8%. From January 2003 to February 2011 the price of iron ore, which these days comprises 17% of Australia’s exports by value, rose from $13.8 to $187.2 a tonne. Australian thermal coal, which accounts for 12% of its exports, rose from $26.7 to $141.9” Mining industry became too big compared to the size of Australian economy and it is going to fail.

 Who buys iron and coal? China, South Korea, and Japan. The biggest problem now is China. China is growing slowly now but the Chinese government says China would grow 6.5 percent every year? Since GDP = C + I + G + (Ex-Im), the  authority can directly control is only government spending. My friend told me Shanghai’s road are remade every few years. They are throwing money just to make up the GDP growth. The communism still would keep country running but the world have to adjusted sometime in the future. But the problem here is Australia depends too much on China. 

 So the next is housing bubble.  I don’t know how many people have been taking seriously. As experience of Japan and the U.S.. I know this very well. Let’s look at stock market here, I can give you link. (http://www.marketindex.com.au/all-ordinaries) And you can plot companies market capitalization and growth last year. You can get it? If you don’t get it, I can give you a hint. Look at top 4 (if this is too easy for you, then 5th). If you don’t get it, you should learn history. Commonwealth Bank (CBA), National Australia Bank (NAB), ANZ, and Westpac (WBC) are known as the Big 4 banks in Australia, controlling more than 80% of the domestic banking business. Globally, no one has heard these banks. They should be too big to fail because they are controlling 80 %. Have you read the too big to fail. Just one Lehman Brothers could shake entire American economy. Big 4 is too too big.

 Then next is residential properties. Australia’s foreign investment policy for residential real estate is very clear, it is basically saying non resident foreigner has to buy newly build new properties, which leads to further bubble, who is going to live new properties after the Chinese leave?  People buy home not to live but to invest. How come REIT market here is ranked 3rd largest REIT market in the world, which is 9.86 trillion yen? (2nd Japan 11.17 trillion yen and 1st U.S 85.52 trillion yen). Japan’s GDP is three times larger than here and its population is at least 5 times larger than that of Australia. Can you believe it? So finally, as shown in Figure (B), residential properties is growing, earnings stay almost same, so naturally the average of household debt is growing (Figure (C)).

 Here I add finally 9th factor, industry share odf output key factors they are Service 59 %, retail trade 5% , construction 9%, manufacture 7% , mining 6% , and the rest 14 %  as shown in Figure (I didn’t get the number for agriculture this country should do very good.).  Did you get it? There are too much of banking (I didn’t get the number either), retail, construction, and mining industry, is this developed country? I don’t think so. What would happen when both mining and housing have problem? How this country comes back after the bubble collapse?

 This really depends on how China lands finally. I know China can avoid collapsing for a while but history told us they can’t do it forever. I am a Japanese, I know it. As no one in America and European had not believed Japanese had said before they have experienced bubble collapse. I know China and Australia don’t believe us. Now China and then Australian, people says “this time is or we are different” I know it is not. And I know everyone used to say so.

  

Hotel you should stay in Tokyo

I have gotten my vacation in April. I am pretty happy about it. So, I booked hotel in Tokyo after some research. It is a bit weird since Japan is my home country and I had live in Tokyo suburb for more than 10 years however I didn’t know hotels much to be honest. It is because, you know, I didn’t need to stay there when I was living. Anyways, so I have looked over more than 300 hotels in Tokyo and asked a number of friends living in Tokyo which hotel I should stay.

Also inbound tourism in Japan is booming now, foreign tourists have been increasing since 2011 from almost all countries. The tourists of the year of 2011 dropped dramatically because of earthquake. Since then, the foreign tourists in 2013 exceed 10 million (2013) and increased 13.4 million (2014), 19.4 million (2015), and finally reached 24.0 million (2016). Japanese government expects 40 millions in Olympic year 2020. I wanted to write more about Japanese inbound tourism in the future so I will compare this statics in future to talk about tourism in Japan. For this post, I will talk only about hotel because some people now might be interested in hotels in Tokyo.

So anyways,

Tonight, I am privileged to announce this year’s best outstanding hotel in Shin’s awards 2017 is given Tokyo “Hotel New Otani”.

Shut up. I am writing.

I will give the reasons why I choose Hotel New Otani.

I will talk about old Big three, new Big three, and Big three in 21st century. But first I will think about why hotel staying is important to talk about.

Firstly I will talk about how you spend money in Japan. Figure (left) shows that the consumption by a foreign tourist estimated by Japan tourism agency. The transportation expense looks low. I believe this is because more than 80 percent of tourists are from Asia, the numbers are roughly, Europe+America+Oceania 12.7%, East Asia 72.7%, South East Asia 11%, and the rest is only 5%. And of course Chinese people are buying a lot now, Shopping seems very high right now but it will settle. Finally for food, foreign tourists want to do most in Japan is eating Japanese food based on research from Japanese National Tourism Organization (JNTO). So, you might know more than me what to eat and where to go. For this post, let’s look at accommodation which is 2nd largest expense after shopping, to maximize your satisfaction for staying in Japan.

So next figure (right), this is satisfaction function based on my personal feeling as function of yen. I plot the scale with log (yen) in transverse axis so watch out. As you can see, there might be 4 area, you Budget hotels, Standard hotel, Upper class hotel, and Luxulay hotel. I will write about more in Budged hotel later. For the standard, I don’t have good impression the price typically ¥7000-¥12000 (like US$61-104) but they all looks same services is not bad level. As for luxury ones are really expensive cost more than ¥30000 (like $260USD). I would rather spend more money for food since the best sushi restaurant (the really best and expensive) costs $300-500 at most. Typically, you can find best and really food less than $100. Food is like $5-20 if you find reasonably good ones. Praise the Japan’s 20 year’s deflation!! So here, I really recommend the hotel Upper class when you are traveling in Japan, the range should be like 15000-30000 (like US$130-260 per night).

Finally I would start talking hotel in Tokyo.

There are Old Big three hotels in Japan. These are Hotel New Otani, Imperial Hotel, and Hotel Okura. Hotel Okura main is now under renovation for Olympic game year. Annex is still available. Hotel Okura, some people remember from Steve Jobs’ biography, is the hotel he used to stay when he had business in Japan. There are descriptions in the book story about eating Unagi sushi with his daughter. I think you can go there only for sushi restaurant too. Imperial hotel is also very good hotel, I would recommend staying there also. But it might not be best recommendation for today.

The next in new Big three hotels in Tokyo, they are Hotel Chinzanso US$292, Westin $293, and Parkhyatt US$668. Of course, you can try them. They are getting expensive like you see. They should be great hotels, but it costs very much to me.

Finally, new Big three in 21st century hotels Ritz-Carlton US$604 Mandarin US$636, and Peninsula US$930, so American started building 5 stars hotels in Tokyo since 2000 roughly. They are not any of Big threes but as I put these two hotels as reference, they are Grand Hyatt (unknown) and 4SEASON (US$1695).  I can’t sleep every hour costs almost $100? I must feel 100 percent satisfaction. I should be able to sleep well, or can’t I?

Now you got idea.

Are you ready to listen to the price of Hotel New Otani?

 

It’s US$152.

I know, I know, it is like FREE, right?

Don’t you think so, old sport?

 

They are one of old Big three. They have really beautiful Japanese garden (http://www.newotani.co.jp/en/tokyo/garden/index.html) and 38 nice restaurants, and very close to Imperial palace and any famous places to visit in Tokyo. You can see a lot of green even if you are staying in Tokyo. To be fair, I put price the other old big three they are Imperial hotel $430, Hotel Okura $237. One concern I have for New Otani might be the number of room, they might have too many so too many customers. But, as you can see the figure below, the New Otani is the exceptional. This is my final answer as you see below.

Also some people might want to use Airbnb. I am not familiar with it so, sorry, I can’t write but I heard there are plenty of them and some of them are really nice. Whilst, I would like to recommend Budget hotels for some people who are interested in,

If you are bookwarm, Book and rest should be best,

http://bookandbedtokyo.com/en/tokyo/index.html

http://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Japan-Trends/Reading-drinking-sleeping-all-in-one-bookshop

If you are a railfan, a railway company renovated train for hotel

http://trainhostelhokutosei.com/en/

http://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Japan-Trends/One-time-flophouses-fit-the-bill-for-budget-travelers-in-Japan

If you were women, there are capsule hotels for women

http://nadeshiko-hotel.jp/yado-lodging.html

http://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Japan-Trends/One-time-flophouses-fit-the-bill-for-budget-travelers-in-Japan

If you want to make friends from traveler from everywhere, Sakura hostel is the hotel you should choose. Also they can provide a lot of event while you stay in Japan

https://www.sakura-hotel.co.jp/

So this is my observation, I haven’t stayed New Otani yet to be honest. So I might report after I stay there in April if you want me to. I hope this helps someone to look for accommodation in Tokyo in near future. Enjoy staying Tokyo, Japan. Thank you for reading.

(I used currency conversion US$1=115 yen, US$1 = 0.7595 A$, the price of hotel is an online travel service, the price was quoted on 27th Feb. 2017 for April weekday’s one night stay)

Life as a game.

‘These days, I was thinking about a lot about “losing”. This is mainly because of life and chess I have learnt recently. So then finally I came to think back on Game theory to reflect on my life again. I don’t know either John von Neumann or Oskar Morgenstern came up with “Game theory” but naming “The Game theory” is brilliant. This is more like the study of strategic interactive decision making among rational players. No one starts learning this study with this naming strategic…. but you might be interested in the study is called the game theory.

I started writing this because of my friends comment about why people need to think about what the opponent thinks in the game. He is playing shogi and I started playing chess. So that was a profound question and I wanted to understand too. Then I started reading the game theory books back, I just have digested some of my questions I have had recently so I am writing.

So firstly, I started from the question I wanted to answer to my friend. To start with I need to talk from minmax theory. Let’s think about 2 basketball teams are in the game. Point is for A. Both teams can choose fast or slow attack (move or strategy, I am not sure what is called in game), if you were A’s couch, which move you would need to choose in this game?

So you chose fast game, B will chose also fast. A probably wins. This is so called minmax strategy, you chose fast because you are trying to minimize your loss to maximize your benefit. You don’t chose slow game, you might get 3 but if B realize you are choosing slow game, they would play fast game to make you lose. So you end up -1 if you choose A1. You got it?

O.K, we can think of a bit more complicated game next. You can chose one of three moves, also B can chose also one of three moves. In this situation which moves you need to choose?

Let’s break down this situation, since you are A, you can chose A1, A2, or A3. Among them you won’t chose A1 over A2 because A2 does better against every move you chose even whatever B does. So the matrix can be easier like follow,

You just clear the A1, let’s think on the other moves. You can now think about what the opponent think. You get the idea, B should not chose B2 because B1 does better against every moves on A. So you can do minimize the matrix again.

Now you get idea, as A you will chose A2 over the A3 so finally you and opponent end up with choosing A2-B2 .

Let’s come back original situation. You now understand very well. Firstly we chose, so you should choose. So, now you realized you needed to choose your strategy after B thinks. He should chose column B1 because, for him, B1 column is better than B2.

O.K. We finally got same conclusion. From A, you can chose minimax theory though, it not so clear why you need to choose A2, but know you need to think what B would do. So, sometimes you can easily see better choice by seeing what the opponent see the game. If I could prove it by this simple game, so you could see a lot of opportunities in real situations. So consider what the opponent thinks on field.

So next lesson is what I have learnt recently. Since 21th century is brutal age, the place I am living in Australia is not exceptional. I was looking for a room to share with, so I heard some guy was going to move out, I contacted, he said it should be O.K to take over his room then he suggested taking over his furniture too. We ended up with not renting his room though, since he is moving far from here he had to sell out all his stuff anyway. So, I was still interested in buying his TV so negotiation started,

Here is my decision making tree

So, by doing my homework, I did know I can buy 65inch 4k TV with A$800 at store with 1 year warranty. A$800 is maximum I want to pay for this second hand TV. I can go negotiate if he says TV is under A$800. (by going up on first branch).

Since he had to fly to move to the other place where is far from our town. So he needed to sell all out before he moves especially for big furniture in a week. For him, getting higher even A$1 is win so I can basically negotiate down to A$1 but I didn’t wanted to push hard since I doubted something fishy going on if the TV was too cheap he knows so he might have wanted to sell whatever prices? Or I push too much he might have done something terrible so both might lose. (3rd of second branch). So I would say A$300-A$600 is reasonable price for both of us.

And I also wanted to point out, in this game, I can’t lose because basically, I can almost always postpone to purchase. I can go store to by A$800 TV with 1 year warranty from store. So, I can always let this deal go, because I don’t need to have TV, I just was thinking of it is nice to have it if it is reasonable price. On the other hand, he had better sell it because he was moving out in a week.

O.K. So, are ready to meet him?

He originally offered A$1000 if I bought everything he had. He said “I want to raise the price because you are not buying all of my stuff, I would say $1200?”

???

What did he say?

Lessons :

  1. Don’t forget to do your homework, information asymmetricity is brutal.
  2. Game is for rational people. I was totally at better position, why did he want more from me?
  3. I don’t like the people who want to win even though the other loses. I would love to find ways both win or both little lose.

What I have learned was information is powerful. Maybe he didn’t know the price of TV he is offering is not attractive anymore in the market. You had better have more and more accurate information to make decision is better. We have to know comfortable enough to make these decisions. You should be able to know what reasonable price is for you. We should define as happiness functions as money as a main parameter in this case.

So irrationality, that surprised me why so people make irrational decisions without looking at the situation carefully. So now I am ready to talk about next Presidential campaign and Brexit to think about populism. But, it is time to go, maybe next time.

Reference

[1]Game theory training by Akira Aizawa; Kanki Publishing. (in Japanese)

Early Feb. 2017

I am now at Grenoble, France, Institute of Laue Langvin. I need to do experiment there to do experiment under high pressure environment. I hope I can get nice result like I got in Japan this month. Anyways, I have to publish the result as soon as possible. I am writing and analyzing data too slow. It seems the experiment is finally working somehow after struggling for 5 days, I hope I can get some result by tomorrow.

I have been writing one about Game theory, the question started from why we have to think what our opponent thinks when we are on the game. The question came from one of my Facebook friends who is playing shogi. I was wondering the same question with him since I have started play chess recently too. I could understand intuitively but I could not explain. Now, I can explain now with Game theory. Then, I can describe how we are making decision with using tools from game theory so I will use one of my life events happened to me recently. Finally, I will explain what I am thinking about rational decision making. I hope I can do some argument on populism happening now in the world.

I think next thing I can write is about reading. As for reading, I read 100 books in 2016, which is worst record since I started recording. I read them in English I haven’t counted reading in Japanese though. However, I am pretty sure what I am reading are unique. I will start short summary or thoughts on books. I don’t think I can write book summary yet in English. I will start 5 books per blog with short thought on these books.

And then English, I wanted to practice English better. I am living English speaking countries for more than 4 years? I don’t think my English proficiency is improving. I am not working hard anymore since I can communicate with people. Now, I wanted to improve English skills for reading, speaking, writing, vocabulary, grammar, and listening. I know how to do it but I believe and I am lazy these days. As I learnt form Grit by Angela Duckworth and many other studies on talent I have been reading, I am convinced I have to practice better and deeper, to do that, I have to measure English level somehow. Each English skill is not independent so if I can improve one of them, it should help the other. I am focusing on vocabulary now. I would like to take English test in Sydney. I didn’t take them here because taking English tests here are super expensive, really. But now I am starting now.

During this Japan trip from Jan 31st – Feb 4th, I have met a lot of collaborators and friends. I am glad to see them and they are doing very well. I found out living in Japan is comfortable. Food was good, I don’t need to use foreign language, and I know where to go. I used a state of art instrument at J-PARC with one of the best talented young scientist from our generation helped to me collect data though “young” means totally depends on how you define. The instrument is pretty good. We got really nice data. Because it contains a lot of information, it will be some time to publish the data. I will do my best. As for positron accelerator, we have SNS, Oak Ridge in the U.S. and J-PARC, Tokai, in Japan, ISIS in U.K. J-PARC can be used with multi Ei method at chopper spectrometer, I could see advantages for multi Ei method and it is very promising while J-PARC increases its power soon.

My new year’s resolution

Hi Everyone. Happy new year! How are you doing?

2016 was dramatic year, Brexit in U.K. to Trump in U.S.A. While, to me, Japan seemed to be pretty stable compared with other countries. I believe Japan has chance to contribute a lot to the world in this challenging era for next few years. I hope I can do something too. Also, 2016 was the year I felt strongly we are on the edge of information revolution. I could see stream of technological innovations lead to future of humanity for next few decades.

Throughout 2016, one thing stuck to my mind was “making decisions”, this is partially because my purpose of my life is ceaseless contentious improvement of my personality. So what are goals and how I set goals are my personal interest all the time. As an experimental physicist, I am supposed to make rational decisions based on observations and analysis otherwise we fail to discover new. This is also because by seeing from Brexit, Trump to also my personal life, I have wondered why people can’t make rational decisions. Then, of course, AI and singularity are coming, which I finally could see how it is coming so I have been thinking we have to teach machines our philosophy of life.

By looking back my life, I also have thought this is a big issue to me, making right decisions. So I started doing research on what being rational and making decisions were. So I have read back a number of books I have read and read a number of new books I was interested in, from economics, phycology to philosophy, and of course physics is always my main source of learning and observation.

I still remember when I read the book “predictably irrational” in 2009. And by learning back Game theory and so on, finally I realized why Dan Ariely put “Predictably” because we should have been able to predict it based on the game theory and economic behavior by mathematician John von Neumann and economist Oskar Morgenstern published 1944. Now, I understand little bit more why people make irrational decisions. I hope I can write some what I have learnt in near future, I can start from Game theory.

And yes, now I could see information revolution is a big revolution after agricultural and industrial revolutions. So I think we have to take this seriously, it might last for 200-300 years at least. By just looking back decades, we can think about 80’s = computer, 90’s = software, 00’s = web, and 10’s = mobile. You can guess which company had won these times, can’t you? So, what is coming 20’s? No one knows yet. But I believe AI should be coming after the IoT at earliest. IoTs might be, some people are betting on it.

If IoT was next big thing on 20’s, who would be going to win this 20’s? This time innovations might not be competition but more like co-creation. I believe Japan is now ready to lead these areas. As you know, American companies have won last 4 decades but I hope one of Japanese company could lead in next decade.

This is really exciting in history. Lot of things had been invented before 20th century has been reinvented. Media was reinvented, commerce (shopping) was reinvented, and now finance is being reinvented, then health care will be reinvented soon. If you see this as information revolution, it keeps going and going on so a lot of things will be reinvented, a lot of problems human could have not solved in the past will be solved.

Mobile to IoT has given us a lot of hints already. Think about smart phone and watch, they are collecting enormous information from your place to your blood pressure. In near future, this will expand exponentially, if there is a IoT, there is at least a sensor which would produce structured data. The number of sensors will expand much faster than that of smart phone. Estimation says the data produced by IoT exceed that of smart phone in 2 years and expand exponentially in 20 years.

This will become revolution for AI since they are fed large amount of structural data. The sensor of IoT will become their eyes. This is revolutionary because getting eyes has educated brains of animals and humans. That will happen for AI.

So we human and animals have all done sensing – recognition –  learning  – inference – action – sensing

i.e., see – know what is happening – understand situation – decide what to do – action – see, is learning process

for the science with human

measure – analyze and understand data – hypothesis –prove – measure – learning new

So huge amount data feed AI and making them to think, that would lead to singularity.

Sorry, I am talking things everyone knows. But for me, by seeing great change of people who are working for technology, I felt strongly I would love to contribute to scientific discovery too. I have realized I have to more focus on what no one else (even machines) can to contribute to future of humanity. Especially, I have been distracted by political or personal problems these days. Haha.

As measurement techniques and computations developed, we can detect phenomena previous generation hasn’t done, we are reaching stars again. We could recognize or understand better the problem we are having. So we and AI would work on the solution.

As for physics, I have found few new findings possibly great contributions to physics. Maybe they are just my mistakes. But, the reasons why I could find are one is because experiment techniques have advanced and the other is because I didn’t stop doing research while the other is not doing anymore. Of course, the finding problem is not goal at all. I have recognized the problems, but I just can’t still figure out to solve these problems yet. I am pretty excited to observed physics I have never seen while it is not easy job to solve the problems.

I must solve these problems. Otherwise, no one else would do. (If someone else did, I would be in big trouble. Haha.)

This year, 2016, I would like to challenge what I have done in 2016. I will have to beat easily me2016. Me2017 will do faster what me2016 had done with more efficiently and more focused. I will keep improve myself toward my goals along my purpose of my life which is ceaseless contentious improvement of my life.

  1. I will solve a few big problems in condensed matter physics I have now. I will focus on these throughout 2017.
  2. To know more about making decisions and apply to my life.
  3. To know more about solving problems and keep improve skills to solve problem
  4. Write up and think throw to understand these above two better. I had been careful what to write in public but I want to write more this year.

Thank you for reading. I hope you all have nice 2017, may the force, love, passion, happiness and health be with you. No one has seen 2017 looks like yet because we will make it.

Shinichiro Yano on 1/26/2017 in Sydney, Australia.

私が今考えていることについて

バリに休暇で来ております。今年はとても忙しく、アメリカにいたときよりも二段階くらい飛んで昇給した感じなので、よくよく振り返ってみると成長したなと思います。まだまだ役割に対して能力が追いついていないなという感じなのですが、日々を一生懸命こなしつつ少しづつ成長していければと思います。休みのうちに考え方を書いておき、今後をどうするか考えておきたいなと思いまして、筆を執った次第です。日本語はあまり使わないので、読みづらいかも知れません。

  • 私が今やっている仕事について
  • 私が学んだことについて
    1. 仮説とはなんだったか
    2. 誤差について
    3. 論理的思考とは何で、なぜ必要か?
  • 私が物理学について思っていること

博士号を取得して、4年がたち、アメリカ物理学会の会員も若手(アーリーキャリア4年目)ポジションも終わりに近づいてきたところです涙。ただ実験物理学者としてはかなりよいポジションを確立したと思います。テニュア(終身雇用、最後のアセスメントで消える可能性もまだありますが)もあたえられ、長いスパンで物事を考えられるようになりました。

私の今の仕事は装置担当者という仕事ですが、一般の人、たとえ科学者の人にも、あまりなじみの無い仕事かも知れません。私は物性物理学または物質科学と呼ばれる分野で物理学者の仕事をしてます。物理学者には実験物理学者と理論物理学者がいますが、私は実験物理学者として中性子散乱実験を専門としております。中性子散乱実験を主な実験手段として磁性、超伝導という物質中の物理現象を研究しています。中性子は研究用原子炉か陽子加速器を通して得られるため実験がかなり高額になります。そこで、大抵の国の研究はひとつの大きな研究所が原子炉と加速器の建設、運営し、そしてそこに付置している装置群を建設し、国内や国外の研究者(たんにユーザーとよぶ)を共有して実験を行います。ユーザーは装置の専門家ではありませんので、装置担当者が実験を彼らの遂行するのをお手伝いするという形です。

私は冷中性子三軸分光器という装置の担当者になりました。三軸分光器というのは1950年代に最初にカナダのBrockhouseとアメリカのShullらよってべつべつに製作されています。その貢献により両氏には1994年にノーベル賞が与えられています。主に固体物質の構造、または固体物質中の物理現象の励起を調べるために使われます。冷中性子というのも意味があって冷とは冷たいの冷ですが、ここではエネルギーが低い、つまり長い波長の中性子を用いることを言います。それにより、装置は高いエネルギー分解能を得ることが出来ます。一方で物質中の物理現象の高いエネルギーには届きにくいのですが、私は個人の戦略上、三軸分光器では狙ってこの冷中性子を選んでいます。

先ほど申し上げたように、装置は共用で使われるものであります。我々の装置で実行される実験数は年間に20件程度になります。この20件は各国の研究者から提案書(プロポーザル)が提出され、技術審査を経て、国際的に選別された実験レフェリーによる点数付けされた後、国際的に選別された専門家による会議審査、そして研究所の所長の承認を得て、中性子ビームタイムが配分されます。

我々の装置は実験日数に換算して、筆頭研究者の国籍の割合はオーストラリアが30パーセント(ただ、これはほとんど我々からです苦笑)、12パーセントが日本、中国が15パーセント、台湾が25パーセント、残りは北米、ヨーロッパ、韓国などから大体20パーセントほどになっております。日本は割合が少なく見えますが、日本人は本当のプロ集団で、実験の効率がとてもよく、日数ベースではがシェアが少なく見えます。今、アジアオセアニア地域では日本が研究炉JRR3Mを止めていることもあり、冷中性子三軸分光器でアクティブに動いているのは我々だけになります。需要(要求された実験日数)/供給(配分した実験日数)は2.2倍程度になっております。僕個人的にはよいサイエンスをもっとこの装置から出して知名度をあげて少なくとも3倍位までには持っていきたいところです。今の装置についている担当者は3人でしたが、ひとり抜けて2人になり、矢野がすこしづつ確実に実力をつけ台頭してきて、現在では大体60-パーセントあたりコントロールしています。

ここまで読まれた方は薄々気が付かれたと思われますが、つまり、矢野はこの地域でやくざのようなポジションにいることが分かるかと思います。実験プロポーザルの審査もレフェリーとして年間30本以上こなしており(つまりこの地域の研究者の研究の勉強をさせていただいて)、冷中性子三軸分光器を使用した実験は最もやらせてもらっており(自分以上に冷中性子三軸分光器の実験をやっている人はこの地球上に存在しないかも?)、もうボトルネックは自分の能力だけであります。そして、その伸びしろの無さにまさに恐怖を覚えているところでございます。

業界全体を見てみると、やはりヨーロッパとアメリカは強いですね。我々の業界は大きく分けて三つのECNS(ヨーロッパ中性子散乱学会)、ACNS(アメリカ中性子散乱学会)、AOCNS(アジアオセアニア中性子散乱)でくくられるかもしれません。AOCNSはもっと新しいですが、他もそこまで古くはありません。

アジア・オセアニアでは日本は正直に言いまして圧倒的に強いです。それは歴史的にも研究用原子炉を早く持てたこと、それにより科学者の層がそだち、加速器の研究も進められたことにあるとおもいます。研究用原子炉と加速器を同時に所有して運営できるの国はアメリカと日本しか今のところありません。ただ、この強さがどれだけ続くかはもちろん分かりませんし、僕らの世代が踏ん張りそして、東日本大地震の後に止めている研究用原子炉であるJRR3Mも再稼動しなければ、長くはながくは無いでしょう。また中性子散乱界のクリスチャー・ロナウドといわれている矢野氏が海外いますからね。

学会に所属する会員数ベースで日本人研究者の割合は大体アジアオセアニア地域の31パーセントほどを占めております。もっとも大きいグループです。たとえばオーストラリアとニュージーランドを合わせても14パーセント程度しかなりません。また長い間かけて築き上げてきたコミュニティなので質も高く層もとても厚いです。研究の質でもまだ中国の研究はアーリーアダプター、韓国はもうすこしアーリアーアダプターというところでしょうか?日本の研究者の実験プロポーザルは独創的です。僕も一生懸命サポートさせていただきたいと微力ながらおもっております。

また、私自身の研究ではヨーロッパとアメリカ、また日本での実験を先ほどの同じようなプロセスを通して、承認してもらえ、トップクラスの研究所で実験させていただき、研究者として、装置担当者として両方の視点から学ばせていただいております。やくざのようなポジションにいますが、だからこそ、僕が良い研究者にならなければ、良い研究が生まれないことになりかねません。上司もおそらくそのように考えており、私が海外での実験を時には無茶振り、時には黙認しているようです。前にもお話しましたが、僕は台湾の研究所に雇われここで仕事していますので、ヨーロッパ、アメリカ、日本へ研究で出張することは直接台湾への利益になるわけではありませんから。

普段は見ないのですが、たまたまYouTubeで北野たけしとイチローの対談をやっているのを見て、北野たけしがお笑いでも野球でも競争を勝ち残ってきた人たちだけが舞台に上がり、活躍することが出来ます。競争で勝ってきたのだから、我々はたくさんの負けたものの上に立っている。正々堂々と競争で勝ったのだから、同情のようなものは無いけど、気にはすると。何が出来るかといえば、自分は自分がキチンと仕事することなのだと。なるほどと思いました。

すこし僕も考えてみたいなと思いました。

まずは科学について。科学は人間によって作られるものであります。これはもともと自明のことですが、人は容易に忘れがちであります。これはとても大事なことなのです。今は情報があふれ、何が正しいのか正しくないのかわかりづらい時代になったのだと思います。情報があふれるのはよいことなのかもしれませんが、よく皆さんがいわれる”自分の頭で考える”なんてこともなかなか難しいことです。考えるとはどういうことだったか、理解するとはどういうことだったか、なんてことはなかなか振り返る時間がありません。

実験物理学者となり、装置の開発と運営をしながら、自分と他人の研究をこなしながら、やはり僕は科学というよりかは物理学を研究しているのだなと感じております。そして、ビジネスをしている多くの友人たちとは違う視点を持っていることを感じることがあります。よく物理学は難しいと思われている方もいるかも知れませんが、実際に難しいです。はは。ただ、僕からしてみたら物理学以外はもっと難しいと思うのです。なぜなら僕らは科学の中でももっとも基本的な素性が知れたものを扱っています。それですらなかなか難しいからであります。

もう一つは論理的思考とはなんだったか?ということも疑問におもっていたことであります。科学がこの論理的思考を使っているのはご存知でしょうが、これがビジネスの世界ですこし僕の理解とは離れるような理解をしている人を見かけていました。なので今一度、論理的思考とは何だったかと考えていました。単純には数学では数式で、物理学では数式と実験でA->Bと論理の十分性を担保しているわけであります。数学では論理は100パーセントですが、物理学では理論計算で確かめられた後、モデルが立てられ、それ実験誤差の範囲内で観測してやっいるわけであります。他の科学は僕にはよく分かりません。風が吹けば桶屋が儲かるのか?バタフライ効果なのか?は大きな違いであります。

もっとも最近疑問に思っていたのはなぜ人は分かるはずも無いことに対して分かったように意見しているのか?これはインターネットやSNSなどをみていて思っていました。これは東日本大地震の後、原発事故がおこり、そのあとの原発問題あたりからずっと考えていたことかもしれません。これは僕が考えながら、書いたものであります。議論はもちろん歓迎ですが、これを元に論争するつもりなどありません。僕の考えでなくてより正しいと思われるものを知りたい場合はテキスト等を参照ください。

では考えてみます。科学には下記のような理解の段階がありました。番号があがるにつれて、理解の段階があがっていきます。

1.予想(Conjecture)おそらく正しそうだと思われている提案で、かつ、正しくないとは証明されていない提案であります。

予想で有名なのはフェルマーの最終定理で出てきたTaniyama-Shimura Conjectureですね。アンドリューワイルズはこのアイデアを証明(Prove)したことがフェルマーの最終定理の章の証明(Proof)の中心部分でありました。予想とは今抱えている問題に対して方針を立てるようなことでしょうか?このような指針で問題は解けるのではないかと提案しているわけであります。

2.仮説(Hypothesis)確かめられた観測事実に対する説明として提案されるものであります。予想よりも強い主張になります。

科学ではないかもしれませんが、この仮説で僕が思いつくもっとも有名なものは効率的市場仮説です。この効率的市場仮説は市場は情報的に効率的であるという仮説でした。この仮説はどれだけの情報が効率的であるかによって実際には三つに立場がわかれます。WeakかSemi-StrongかStrongです。Weakの場合は市場で現在決まっている価格は過去の情報と連動しているわけではない。という立場。Semi-Strongは公開情報(Public available information)をすべて盛り込んでいるが、個人的に蓄積されている情報(Personal information)は盛り込まれていない。Strongは公開されている情報も個人的に情報もすべて現在の価格に盛り込まれているとするものであります。

僕はSemiStrongを支持します。これが一番、腑に落ちるからです。

英語ではPrivate information とPublic available informationですから、なかなか訳がうまく思い浮かびません。個人情報と訳すと少し違いますから。パブリック情報とプライベート情報としてみます。これら情報は新聞を考えてみると分かりやすいかも知れません。新聞はパブリック情報ですね。なので新聞をみて、ニュースに株価に直結するような情報を得て、株式を買っても遅いわけです。でも、僕はSemiStrongを支持しますから、もし過去すべての新聞をかき集めてきて、またIRやCEOのコメントを集め、ファイナンシャルステイトメントを分析して、IRから企業戦略を理解し、CEOのコメントからこれから会社に起こることを予想し、過去のパターンなどを分析して、この企業の株価は近々上昇するかもしれない、今は安くもしくは高く売られていると判断するわけですね。たとえば。

スノーボールを読めば分かりますが、ウォーレンバフェットはがオマハに毎晩届いたウォールストリートジャーナルを翌朝に各家庭に配られる前に、前の晩のうちに手に入れることが出来ました。つまりパブリック情報を先に手にすることができました。今はインターネットがありますから、この部分は効率化してきていますね。彼はさらに、公開されたすべての情報から、個人的に経験、分析、によりプライベート情報を引き出すことが出来るということです。さて、どうやって今の時代そのプライベート情報と引き出すか。

そうです。だから私はSemiStrongを支持するからといって、自分でプライベート情報を集めて、市場を打ち負かそうとはおもいません。なぜならそれには多大な労力がかかる。それだけではありません。知識や経験も。だからプロの仕事だとおもっているからであります。自分に十分な資金があり、それで億単位以上稼げるのであれば、やるかも知れませんが、数十万―数百万のためにやりません。いずれにせよ市場を打ち負かすなんて普通の人は考えるべきものではありません。私であればプロに任せます。(まあプロも負けまくってますが笑)

ここまで書いたのは研究も似ているなとおもっているからです。私らは論文を読みますが、これはこれは誰もが知ることが出来るパブリック情報なのです。このパブリック情報を元に研究してももちろんいいのですが、そうなると勝算が大きいとはいえません。なぜなら研究においてはパブリック情報の出し手が一番その科学について詳しく、そして先頭を走っているからです。これですこし分かりましたでしょうか?科学で最先端に追いつくということが簡単ではないということが、優秀な人がトップスピードで先頭を走っていることに追いつくのは簡単なことではないのです。だから日本は今トップスピードで走っている国の一つですが、一度遅れたら、なかなか取り戻せるものではないのです。

ではどうしようかというと論文をたくさん読んだり、違う視点で読んで、自分なりに見出した法則やいまだに誰も手をつけてない現象にめをつけ、自分なりにアイデアをだし、予想し、仮説を立て、その仮説を検証する手段を開発し、仮説を検証し、論じて、そして認められればよいわけです。それが独創的で、かつ科学的な貢献が大きいとき、その科学者の貢献は大きいといえるのではないでしょうか?

では次の段階に行きましょう。もうこれからはあまり詳しく書きません。

3.定立、命題、論文(Thesis)とは証明されたStatement(日本語が思いつかない)ではありませんが、議論を展開する前提として用いることが出来るまでに検証されたものです。博士論文や普段僕らが執筆しているような科学論文はこれに当たります。

4.理論(Theory)はよく検証された物理現象に対する説明であり、多くの科学者が同意しているものであります。

理論があればモデルが立てられます。理論があるから、モデルが立てられる。この世の中に正しいモデルというものは存在しません、あるのは有用なモデルだけであるとある統計家がいいましたが、これは思慮深いものであります。つまりモデルはその理論が適用できる範囲内で現象を説明できる。理論、モデルには適用範囲があるということです。よい物理理論家(実験物理学者の視点からですみません)は自分の理論の適用範囲をよく理解されているものだとおもいます。

5.法則(Physical Law)とは物理現象の説明として、理論的観点からよく検証され、実験的観測を通して一般化されたものです。物理の法則して成り立てば、物理現象は予測することが出来ます。

たとえばニュートンの力学から一般化された万有引力は物理学の法則ですから、この力学をつかって、この法則を使って立てたモデルの範囲内で物理現象を予測することが出来ます。惑星の運動などを予測するためにはこの法則を使っているのだと思います。アインシュタインの理論(Theory)から重力波が予測され、それを検出されたのが最近の物理学の大きな話題でした。この理論を使って予測されるものがすべて(実際には十分に)あたるようだと人が理解するとすれば物理法則(Physical Law)になるのでしょうかね。

そう考えると、企業のR&Dなんかは4や5をつかって、ビジネスにつなげようとしているわけですね。昔は3なんかもやっていたのかも知れませんね。僕らの基礎研究は1-3をメインに、3-5もやっているひともいますね。研究者の僕らはこの予想、そして仮説から論文に持っていくことを主に主戦場にしているわけです。したがって、この1-3のプロセスをどれだけ質を上げて行っているかの差が実験物理学者の才能の必要条件の一つではないかと思っています。

自分で予想を立てたか、データを精査したか、そして仮説を立てたか?その仮説を検証したか?その検証した仮説をデータが説明できたか?その仮説が正しければ、その仮説から立てられる予測が当たったか?何が分かって、何が分からなかったか?このステップを正しい目的の下、高い目標に向かって、高い質で丁寧にやるのが、科学者の才能でないかと。そしてそれを楽しめるのが天才でしょう。

ここでやっと疑問の答えがみえて来ました。そうかと、僕がインターネット等をみて疑問に思っていたことが。人は予想した後、自分の予想が正しいと信じたまますごしてしまうのだと。仮説すら立てません。忘れるのは、我々は決断をした後にそれがどれが正しかったかどうかを検証しないからです。ナンバーワンセースルマンが、どんなに論理が自己中なセールスストラテジーを立てようが、売れてしまえば、忘れてしまうのです。もちろんセースルマンの立場を否定しているわけではなくて、ポイントは我々は意志を決定した後、それが正しかったかどうかを検証することを我々は怠ることが多いということです。なぜならそれらは終わったことだから。

この意志決定の精度をキチンと分析し、常に改善していく、そしてその意志の実行力も同時に上げていく。そのためには自発的に何か行動を起こさなければならない。人が同意するかしないかによって自分が正しいか間違っているかは決まらない。あなたは正しいかは事実と推論が正しいからだと思います。まあ、現実にはビジネスでは60-80パーセントで十分に仕事になり、科学は110パーセントを願っているということでしょうか。

次に、論理的思考が我々に必要なのでしょうか?私はそれを実は起業家であるElon Muskから学びました。実は僕らが本当に真に新しいことをしようとしたり、発見しようとしたら、我々は根本的な事実に立ち戻り、それを元に論理を立てて、現象を説明していかなければなりません。私らは論理的に物理現象を説明し、直感では見つけられないものを見つけます。探偵シャーロックホームズもどんなに信じられなくても、可能性があるものをすべて取り除いて、それしか残らないのであれば、それが真実でなのであるといいました。

それは僕がまったく今新しい装置の開発を通してやっと理解しました。僕がここ2年くらいで戦っていたのは誤差についてでした。すこし実験における誤差について復習してみましょう。誤差には二種類あります。一つは偶然誤差、もう一つは系統誤差です。

ここで僕が考えられる最も単純な実験を考えて見ます。それは定規で今飲んでいるビールのビンの長さを計るという実験です。一回の実験ではたとえば10センチという結果が出ます、何度も何度もやっていく。実測値はいつも同じ値ではありません(このような単純な実験では分かりづらいですが)試行ごとに偶然により得られる実験値が違います。あるときは9.9センチだったり、10.1センチだったり。ただ、たくさん試行を繰り返すとこの偶然による誤差を取り除くことができてある実験値が得られます。

ではこれは真の値でしょうか?違いますよね。私たちは系統誤差を忘れています。つまり、今の測定系に系統的に含まれているものはこの実験の繰り返しでは除去できません。考えてみてください。定規の長さは本当に10センチでしたか?実は知りませんよね。メーカーに問い合わせてください。そうすると誠実な担当者は答えてくれます。我々の工場では10センチプラスマイナス0.1mmで作っています。それ以上は勘弁してくれと、もっと高精度のものが欲しかったら、高いの買えと。つまり、今回測定に使っているA社製の定規がもし10センチー0.05mmであった場合、どうしますか?こんな単純な実験ですら単純ではないということが分かりますよね。また実験装置も出来合いのものがもうすでにたくさんありますので、研究者といわれる人々の中でもブラックボックス化してあまり考えていない人もいます。

私たちは今まで証明されていない物理学現象を観測しようとしている。そう、つまりそれを測る方法と装置も自分たちで作らなければいけません。新しい科学現象は誰も測ったことが無いからです。新しい装置を作るとこういうものを論理的に追い詰めて、テストし、証明し、改善していかなければいい装置にはなりません。

そう、良い装置を作る、良いサイエンスをするためには戦わなければなりません。上司は予想のレベルで批判を加えてくるわけです。そんなことは起こり無いだろうと、これはアメリカにいたときもそうでした。つまり、上司の仕事はそんなことは起こりえないというのが仕事で僕の仕事は起こりえて、こういうことだと説得することでした。これをひとつひとつ丁寧に行うことで力がついてくるものだと思っております。

大きな理由の一つは人は直感的にランダムというものを判断できないのです。僕は今グラフや図を持っていないので口頭での説明になってしまいますが、人間は本当にランダムに散布した点をなにも言わずに見せられるとこの現象はランダムな散布と答えることが出来ません。なぜなら我々の脳は何かしら、というかどうにかしてパターンを見出そうとしてしまうからです。なので、そういうバイアスを取り除いて数値的に解析するしかありません。

もうすこし、進んで考えて見ましょう。実際の実験では偶然誤差のよりは統計誤差というものを考えていることが多いです。統計誤差とは偶然誤差の一つで確率論的にしか測定できない場合に統計誤差として扱います。これは数学的に厳密に扱えます。たとえば中性子は、量子力学で扱いますから、一つ一つが波の性質をもつと同時に、ひとつひとつ数えることが出来ます。(量子化できる)、一つ一つ数えられる中性子はポアソン分布します。したがって数学的に厳密に扱えて、10000の中性子を検出効率1で測定した中性子の誤差はSQRT(N)=100になります。つまり統計誤差は10000+-100になります。丁度1パーセントですね。

つまり、統計誤差は扱える。では、装置を改良するためにこの系統誤差をそう最小化するか?につきます。そうですね。ここから戦いが始まるわけです。我々は実際に、たくさんの小さな装置、部品などを組み合わせて一つの装置を作っていますので、たとえば系統誤差が時間依存(周期的かそうでないのか)するのか、そうやっていひとつひとつ論理的に追い詰めていかなければ良い装置というものは出来ません。この誤差が統計誤差よりも大きくなるのであればそれがその装置のボトルネックとなってしまいます。こうなった場合、いくら、時間をかけて統計を溜めてもまったく意味が無いのです、なぜなら統計誤差よりも系統誤差が大きいからです。ではその系統誤差はどこからきますか?現場に立って、いろんな予想をし、仮説をたて、それを実験的にテストして、論理的に追い詰めていかなければなりません。最悪なときには取り除けない場合というのももちろんあります。

長かったですね。ここまで話したのは装置の建設についてです。そして、よい装置を建設できたらよいサイエンスが出来ます。サイエンスはここからですよ。笑。長げーよ。まじで。

装置担当の僕としてはこの統計誤差また系統誤差について正しく把握し、実験者にもっとも効率的でもっとも適当な、そしても最も成功率の高いと思われる測定を提案しないといけません。そして、論理的にこの系統誤差を理解しないと何が測れて、知らないといけません。そこに、新しい物理現象が自分の信じる統計誤差と系統誤差をこえてシグナルとして検出された場合に、これは本物であると思うわけです。それが本物なら。。。やっとここで、何じゃこりゃ???となるわけです。こんなことあり得ないと。サイエンスが始まっていくわけです。

だから、ここから面白くなってくるのです。たとえばこういう風に見つけた科学的現象は完全に哲学で言うところのPrioriなのか、そうではないのか。簡単に答えられなくなってくるわけです。そして理解するということもなかなか難しくなってくるわけであります。たとえば、僕の最も好きな本とPhysics and Beyond(日本語訳“部分と全体”)いう本の中でパウリというハイゼンベルグ(パウリはハイゼンベルグの研究室の先輩に当たる)のパウリがハイゼンベルグに正直に原子の内部に電子軌道があることを信じられるか?と聞く場面があります。我々は数式により実験的にも我々をそれを本当に心(頭では無くて)で感じるかとは違うのです。だから腑に落ちるという言葉はとても深いのです。本当に頭と心で理解したのかと。中性子は量子力学的実体ですから、波であり、粒子であります。僕は普段実験していても、不思議に思うことがあるんです。不思議だなと。

物理学者は新しいことを発見していきます。物理学者の底辺代表の矢野でも何とか新しいものを見つけよう、その新しいものは何かを解明しようと日々、うそ時々Baliでリラックスしながら、頑張っています。

物性物理学で主に私は磁性と超伝導をやっています。最初は磁性だけのつもりでしたし、自分は磁性を研究していると宣言していましたが、自分がやっていた物質が超伝導を示し、OMG(オーマイゴット)で超伝導にもつっこんでしまいました。へへ。

磁性学では物質中の磁性イオンの中の電子スピン、電子軌道から生まれる磁気モーメントの配列を解明する。またその磁気的な配列がどのように成り立つかを実際に波を起こさせてその波の振る舞いを見ています。波を見ることによりそれらの磁気モーメントがどれだけ強い力で配列しようとしているかを決めることができます。

最近僕が書いた論文では今まで30年位は解けていなかった磁性体の磁気構造を実験と計算から論理的に可能な限りおいつめて、4つの磁気構造しかありえないということを導き出しました。ただ、どうやらそれらの磁気構造ですら完全には実験事実を説明しないのです。ここで三つの可能性が考えられます。まず仮定としてつかった実験事実がちがったか、現在の実験精度ではこのそれが観測できないか、または磁気構造を解いたときに使った理論に使われている仮定が違うか?そのどれかです。3だと思っていて、そうなるとかなり大掛かりな研究になってきますが、その方向で頑張ってみようと思っています。

超伝導とは現代の物質科学の中でももっとも良く知られていてかつ難しい分野の一つであります。よく知られた性質は超伝導とは超と伝導ですから、電気伝導が超良い、つまり電子が物質中を抵抗なく伝導します。物質中を電子が抵抗もなく伝導するわけですから何がおきているのかと疑問に思うわけです。現在は電子がペアを組んでお互いに引力を持ち、物質中を伝播していると考えられています。ではどのようなメカニズムでこの電子がペアを作っているかが最大の問題なのです。電子格子相互作用というものが提唱されて、実証されて、ノーベル賞が得られていますが、どうやらそれだけではないようなのです。なんと磁性とも関連しているかもしれないと。今は僕はそこをやっています。

そうなると疑問に思ってきます。えっマジで?いくつもペアを可能性があるの?と。どんな超伝導が考えられるかという疑問もさることながら、ならば物質というは超伝導になりたいのか?どうなのかと?すべての物質はある条件下(極低温や高圧力下)で超伝導や磁性になるのか?だからもし宇宙がこれから冷えていって、すべての物質が絶対ゼロ度近くまで冷却されたらどうなるか?

他の宇宙にどうやっていくかはまだ想像もつきませんが笑。最近、希ガスのキセノンが高圧力・高温下で化合物を合成するのも分かりました。それらのまだ見たことも無い物質の物性はどうなっていて、どうなっていくのか?もし、そこまで行かなくても宇宙の室温は2.73Kですから、これから人類が宇宙にでていったら、物質科学でこれまで発見した物性(磁性、超伝導やその他のいろんな)の使い放題。つまり、宇宙は物性物理現象の宝石箱やー。となるわけです。

だから面白いんですよ。楽しいんですよ。本当に苦しいときはあるのですが、そういう時は遠くを見て、人類の未来をなんて勘違いをしながら、一歩一歩つめていくのであります。

もう一つ最後に、この世に存在するどんな問題にも共通しますが、問題自体に価値があるわけではありません。それがどんなに重要な問題であれ、崇高な問題であれ、ノーベル賞に値する問題であろうが、家族会議で話される問題であろうが、問題自体に価値があるわけではありません。それより重要なことは、その問題にどうに対応するかにひとの評価とは与えられるべきなのだと僕は信じています。

だから、我々、現代人は予想したレベルで分かったように思い人に色んなアドバイスなんてしなくて良くて、自分で問題を設定して、自分で問題を見つけ、そして自分が率先して問題に立ち向かう。そのために能力を使って生きたいのであります。そして、皆さんも自分のため、家族のため、そしてもし、余裕があれば、地域のため、そして、日本のため、そして、できれば世界のために自分の力を!!!

そのように生きられたら、人生は圧倒的に短いのです。

矢野真一郎 2016年9月3日インドネシア、バリ島にて

Why we misunderstand our reality.

I was wandering why people think they are smart these days including me. We are internet age (almost for 20 years?), we can access a lot of information so easily but that makes us smart or good decision maker? I was not sure. The reason why I was thinking has been, after big earthquake and Fukushima accident in Japan, it seemed to me people make sometime irrational decisions. So, I was wandering what went wrong? based on what, we are making decisions? I am a scientist so I thought back what we do to make decisions in scientific context. Then, I wrote that down in Japanese. I don’t know how much I could write in English but I am trying to do that here.

This is my understanding, so I don’t want to argue it with you. If you want to know more about these things, please look for textbooks. Anyways, let me do it. We have several stages of understanding in physics,  or haven’t we?

  1. Conjecture : Proposition to solve a problem to explain physical phenomena we are facing. Usually ideas, thoughts, directions, and advises. At this stage, this proposition is not unproven. I can come up with Taniyama-Shimura conjecture as conjecture to prove Fermat’s last theorem has been proofed by Andrew Wiles.
  2. Hypothesis : Proposed explanation on the physical phenomena based on observations. Hypothesis should be stronger than conjecture.
  3. Thesis : Based on observations physical phenomena and testings hypothesis, the thesis would be proposed as a statement we could use a presumption of argument. Scientific papers and doctoral thesis we write might be here.
  4. Theory : An explanation of physical phenomena thoroughly tested, and most scientists agree on it. By using theory, we could make models. These models should explain physical phenomena. If theory is right, these models could also predict the result. For example, based on Einstein’s theory, scientists had predicted gravitational wave. They have succeeded to observe it.
  5. Physical law : Scientifically generalized law of physical phenomena. By using physical law, we could predict the future incident on where the law is applicable. Newton’s laws are thoroughly tested and generalized so we could predict the movement of planet as long as on where the law of universal gravitation dominates.

So I am basically doing 1-3 during research. Some scientist also do 3-5, such as LIGO (detecting gravitational wave predicted by Einstein’s theory). Maybe R&D in company normally is working on 4-5 to make products.

Now, I started to understand. We usually make conjectures (I meant we come up with thoughts or ideas about news on TV or so) but we are not doing tests on the ideas or thoughts, even we don’t hypothesize. If we could have hypothesis, we could or might be able to perform the tests and know them better. Is there any problem here? No, as long as they are not crucial to our life. What is wrong with it? Nothing, as long as the problems are not serious.

Sometimes, however, it could be serious. We don’t usually do hypothesizing and testing because it take efforts and time, because we need to work hard to figure things out. Biggest problem here is that we profoundly make false assumptions, however, we feel as if we are doing O.K. Even though we haven’t done anything these hypothesizing and testing.  We don’t investigate the quality of decision we make once the problem has pasted. That was weirdness I was feeling. We behave like we made a right decision because the problem has passed away.

I was good at math in school but was not the best. Why is that? Because, I had mistakenly believed I could have solved the problems so I didn’t solved them when I thought I could solve them. But I should have fill out paper until the teachers were convinced.

We can’t solve every questions and problems in our life, we have to use time wisely and efficiently, for which is important to ourselves. Otherwise, we don’t have much time by the time we die. Don’t tweet or post ideas on twitter or Facebook, just start solving it!!

 

Thinking on vacation

I am on vacation at Bali island in Indonesia. I have decided to do nothing during this holiday and I am not doing nothing but relaxing. I am always at hotel. I am reading, writing, and of course pondering my life with Indonesian local beer Bintan. And I am playing chess which I have learnt how to play recently. I started winning against a weak computer but I keep losing against human players. I am listening to band playing tonight at bar in the hotel, what a relaxing night!

I thought I wanted to write more but maybe I am starting from tonight.

The reason why I wanted to have this kind of time was, I guess, because I have experienced a big jump in my career, which is good thing, but I have been kind of overwhelmed my responsibility even though I have been motivated and excited about the job. By looking back my last 2 years, however, I would say I grew a lot as a scientist. Still, I believe I can do better and I would love to be a better scientist. I am not satisfied at all. So I wanted to think what I have learnt, what I can do better, and then how I want to tune and check my strategy as a physicist.

So, anyway, I haven’t talked to anything about what I am doing in Australia, have I? I am working as an instrument scientist for one of cold triple axis spectrometer (cold TAS) newly built by Taiwanese research team. They have spent 10 years to build and now we are on business for science. I can quickly come up with 10 other cold triple axis spectrometers in the world but they are almost all. There are not so cold triple axis spectrometers  in this world. So, Australia got one now. Sadly, Japan has two but Japanese had to stop using research reactor so Japanese are not using them. Europe (Germany and French especially) and America have great ones. As for Asia Oceania area, I would honestly say that I am taking great advantage by working in Australia because currently we have only one cold TAS in Asia Oceania area (since Japanese ones are not working).  I am working as an instrument scientist which means I can know deeply what science has been studied this area by reading proposals and involving experiments. What a remarkable opportunity for a young scientist like me.

As I wrote, last two years, I have learnt a lot but I didn’t have time to write down, one reason is because I wanted to be careful what I  write in public. I need to digest what I have seen and brew my ideas to express in public. I might be still wrong anyways. The other is because I was lazy to think through when I am working. Anyways, I am on vacation so it is time to ponder what I have learnt. For me, I am struggling by doing physics even though I am handling fundamental things such as neutron, electron, and magnetic moment! but it is still difficult. How am I comfortably able to be confident with other things around the world? So let me think and I will be writing following things within few days,

  • As an experiment physicist – what I am doing as a job
    • instrument scientist
    • neutron scattering in Asia Oceania
    • Statistics around me
  • My current focus on physics – what I am looking for
    • Magnetism
    • Superconductivity
    • Why they are mysterious in physics, in our space, and in our future
  • What I have learnt – how much we can know from what we have
    • Statics error and systematic error
    • What was hypothesis? Conjecture, thesis, theory and physical law.
    • Difference between tactics and strategies
    • What is logical thinking?
    • What is talent as scientist, what make a great scientist great?